Kansas vs. Illinois Week 2: Predictions & Spread Pick

Kansas Jayhawks at Illinois Fighting Illini

Where: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

When: Saturday, September 7th at 7:00 PM EST

Watch: Fox Sports 1

Betting Odds

• Spread: KU/Ill -5.5
• Over/Under: 57.5

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Kansas Jayhawks Look to Continue Their Ascent

The 19th ranked Kansas Jayhawks head to Champaign, Illinois this Saturday for an inter-conference matchup with the Illinois Fighting Illini. Both teams head into this weekend coming off dominating Week 1 performances, albeit against opponents that were heavily outmatched and certainly not household names in the world of college football. Ironically, the Jayhawks and the Fighting Illini enter this game fresh off 45-point victories in which they dismantled Lindenwood and Eastern Illinois, respectively. It is always a blessing to receive a Week 1 tune-up game against a mid-major program before the Power 5 schedule begins. This will be the seventh time historically that Kansas and Illinois have met, with the all-time series currently tied 3-3. In last year’s contest, almost one year ago to the day, Kansas handed the Illini a 34-23 loss. I expect this to be an old-school, physical football game with a heavy emphasis on possession management. Take a look at my breakdown of this clash below before you place your bets.

Kansas’ dominating performance against Lindenwood seemed like the only possible outcome last week. While the outcome was obvious, the Jayhawks’ performance was impressive enough to see them rise three spots in the AP top 25. Led by 5th-year senior quarterback Jalon Daniels, this Kansas team has the leadership and experience to make some noise in the Big 12. This is a program that has been trending upwards in recent years, and its ability to execute in all phases of the game should allow that trend to continue. Last week, offensively for Kansas, it was all about the run. As a team, the Jayhawks racked up 331 rushing yards between nine different players. Most notably, Devin Neal led the way with 112 yards and two TDs on only eight attempts. I don’t anticipate that we will see Kansas utilize this many ball carriers week over week, but the emphasis on the ground game will not fade. The Jayhawks only threw 21 passes in Week 1, but their clear number one wide receiver, Luke Grimm, was still able to get over the century mark, partly due to a 58-yard TD catch in the second quarter. I would expect that this week’s game plan will be a bit more balanced considering the drastic increase in competition level, however coach Lance Leipold is not shy about his commitment to the run. Considering his offensive line’s ability to control the line of scrimmage consistently, the Jayhawks would be wise to keep attacking on the ground. Defensively, Kansas was able to severely limit their opponent’s production. The Jayhawks defense held Lindenwood to just 202 total yards and kept their 3rd down conversion rate below 50%. Defensive consistency and a steady run game is the Jayhawk’s recipe for success in this matchup.

Key Matchup: Kansas Offense vs Illinois Defense

The Fighting Illini will provide a much bigger test to the Kansas defense than Lindenwood did. Quarterback Luke Altmyer put his accuracy on display, completing 19 of 24 passes and throwing four touchdowns. Illinois spread the ball around to eleven different receivers on the day, led by Pat Bryant, who caught two of Altmyer’s TDs. While the passing stat line may seem like it was the difference in the game, it was actually Illinois’ ability to run the ball that kept the chains moving. Running backs Kaden Feagin and Aidan Laughery combined for over 180 rushing yards while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois was able to force cross-state “rival” Eastern Illinois into four turnovers by way of two forced fumbles and two interceptions. Illinois, and the Big 10 in general, has been known for sound defensive play in recent memory. The Fighting Illini have seen former members of their defensive units find their way onto NFL rosters and play meaningful snaps. Under head coach Brett Bielma, this Illinois squad will play a mean and gritty defensive scheme to try to keep games low scoring to give their offense a chance to win it. They have an extremely tough week 2 test in Kansas who can seemingly score from anywhere on the gridiron.

My Pick: Kansas -5.5 (-110)
While Kansas has had its struggles in Champaign, they have won the last two meetings against this Illinois program. Personally, I see these two teams trending upward, but the Jayhawk’s ascent is much steeper. The explosiveness of the Kansas offense will be the difference in this one. Illinois converted a measly 40% of their third down opportunities last week, so if they get behind on the scoreboard early, their fate will be sealed. The Illini defense will do all they can to keep their team in the game, but after losing two starters from 2023 on the D-line, they will eventually succumb to the hard-nosed Jayhawks rushing attack. I like Kansas by at least a touchdown here. Rock Chalk!