Kansas vs. BYU Prediction: Can the Jayhawks Upset the Unbeaten Cougars?

Kansas Jayhawks (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. BYU Cougars (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 12
Date/Time: Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 10:15PM EST
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
TV: ESPN

The Kansas Jayhawks come into Provo on Saturday for a Big 12 showdown with the BYU Cougars. Both of these teams are coming off wins on Saturday. The Jayhawks, after losing five in a row, have now won two of three, including a 45-36 win over Iowa State in their last game. They look to keep this little mini-surge going, but face a real tough test in the form of unbeaten BYU, coming off a tough 22-21 win over Utah in their last game and the only unbeaten team in the Big 12. With a lot of big things on the Cougars’ plates, will they continue to thrive, or can the Jayhawks play the role of spoiler?

Is BYU Fading?

You don’t want to get too critical when a team like BYU puts themselves on the precipice of some big things, but there have been some close calls of late. On Saturday against a 4-4 Utah team, they really needed a lot to break their way with a last-second FG notching them the one-point win in a real nail-biter. A few weeks before that, it was BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff making another big play with time running out to salvage the narrow win against a 3-4 Oklahoma State team. While they’re ranked in the top ten and there is well-placed optimism for longtime head coach Kalani Sitake’s team, I’d exercise caution, as well. They might be in line for big things, even benefitting from their first big season in years converging with the first season of the expanded College Football Playoff, but we’ve seen them playing on nearly-even terms with some mid-pack teams recently.

It’s not even necessary to think the Cougars are overrated to project that this might not be as cushy a spot as it appears on the surface. You see the respective records of each team. You see their respective perspectives, where one team is pushing for a shot at potential glory while the other is just playing out what has been a rough season. It sets up in the mind to create this disparity that might not even exist in reality. BYU is the better team, that much is known out the gate. But when two teams operate in the same conference, and one is winning a lot of close games, and the other is losing a lot of close ones, you start to see that the difference in quality might not be as stark as it first appears.

The Case for BYU

Close games aside, it says a lot about both sides of the ball for BYU to be coming out of some close games so well. Retzlaff has really shown a flair for clutch play this season, along with a defense that can clamp down at the right times. With 18 TDs through the air and four more on the ground, Retzlaff gives this offense a lot of energy, backed up by running backs LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati. Receivers Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter provide this offense with some nice balance. The Kansas defense will be pushed to its limits facing a home-BYU offense with a lot to play for.

A bigger challenge to Kansas might come in the form of a BYU defense that has allowed opposing offenses to surpass 24 points of scoring just twice this season. With Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels sometimes a bit errant aerially, that could play into the hands of a Cougars’ defense that has 16 picks on the season. With the nifty feet of Daniels, along with the work of Jayhawks’ running back Devin Neal, the BYU run-defense will be tested. They’ve been a mixed bag in that area, sometimes pretty rigid but not always to the point where you figure Kansas hits a brick wall in this spot. In the last 6 weeks, this Kansas offense has scored between 27-45 points each week, becoming more consistent and showing their teeth at times these last few weeks. Whether BYU can seriously curtail them this week is a dicey proposition.

Trappy Spread

There seems to be some psychology at play or at least a game of chicken with the books currently, as of press time, having the home Cougars a scant three-point favorite. With three points being the customary home-field allowance, it’s like they’re almost rating a 9-0 BYU team as being on even terms with the 3-6 Jayhawks. From that standpoint, it’s either a feeding frenzy for BYU or a trick where you take Kansas just from not wanting to do what the sportsbook seems to want you to do. The more you ponder it, the further you get away from football and more into the mental game with the book. I’d look to make it a combination of both.

It makes some sense. BYU does seem like their number is up, but when it happens, it won’t be ceremonial. It will be in a spot like this where you saw it coming but really didn’t see it coming. They’re barely scraping by, and those teams were appreciably no better than Kansas, who might even be a little better now that they’re actually putting up wins here and there and peaking later in the year after really not getting much to run out their way in the first half of the season. So, even if it doesn’t make sense to you on some levels, you can at least see the vibe and rhythm of things shaking out in a way where Kansas is right in this at the end with a shot to win.

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

If I’m walking into a KO punch here, so be it, but I actually do think BYU is better. They’re at home. They have a ton on the line, even more than they would have had at any other point in college football history, as the expanded format was likely their only real shot at an opportunity for a national championship. Are they even up to that standard to warrant that being a viable outcome? Probably not, but it’s a path that is at least available to them if they can keep winning. I suspect this will be tough, but the urgency of it all won’t be lost on this BYU sideline, as they get the win and cover at home on Saturday. I’ll take the Cougars.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the BYU Cougars minus three points.

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