Kansas State Wildcats (2-1) vs. Texas Longhorns (4-0), -14.5 O/U 55.5, 3:30 p.m. Eastern Saturday, September 29, 2007 on ABC.
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The Kansas State Wildcats will meet the Texas Longhorns where the Longhorns will look for revenge after last seasons stunning win by the Wildcats, 45-42. Texas appeared to be headed to the Big 12 Championship and was a National Title contender until the loss to Kansas State.
Kansas State is led by Sophomore QB Josh Freeman who had a fantastic game in last years upset win. This season Freeman has completed 62.9% of his passes for 827 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The ground game is led by RB James Johnson who has rushed for 239 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Texas is led by Sophomore QB Colt McCoy who has completed 67.3% of his passes for 1,054 yards, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. RB Jamaal Charles leads the Longhorns in rushing with 471 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and 6 touchdowns.
Kansas State ranks 44th in total offense with an average of 133.7 yards rushing (4.95 yards per rush) and 295.3 yards passing per game. They rank 27th in scoring offense averaging 36.0 points per game. The Longhorns offense ranks 27th in total offense averaging 187.2 yards rushing (4.77 yards per carry) and 263.5 yards passing. Texas ranks 23rd in scoring offense averaging 37.0 points per game.
The Wildcats defense ranks 14th in total defense giving up an average of 68.0 yards rushing (1.89 yards per carry) and 190.3 yards passing per game. They rank 16th in scoring defense giving up an average of 15.7 points per game. Texas ranks 32nd in total defense giving up 87.2 yards rushing (2.55 yards per carry) and 223.2 yards passing. They rank 26th in scoring defense giving up 18.0 points per game.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Wildcats 61st at 71.89. Texas ranks 9th at 86.87.
Texas opened up as a 15 point favorite with a total of 54.5 at most sportsbooks. The line has dropped to Texas -14.5 and the total has risen to 55.5. At the time of this writing, the public was backing the Texas 64%-36%.
The Predictem Pick:
The game features teams that have great rush defenses. We think this will lead to a relatively low scoring game as Kansas State will try to shorten the game by running the clock. We suggest a play on under the total of 55.5.
Texas 31 Kansas State 17