No. 12 Kansas State Wildcats (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears (10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)
College Football Week 15
Date and Time: Saturday December 6th, 2014. 7:45PM EST
Where: McLane Stadium Waco, T.X.
TV: ESPN
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: KSU +7.5/BAY -7.5
Over/Under Total: 71
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The Big 12 is the only conference in the Power 5 conferences in college football that does not participate in a season ending championship game to decide the winner of the conference. However, this Saturday nights matchup between the 12th ranked Kansas State Wildcats and the 5th ranked Baylor Bears inside McLane Stadium could have even bigger championship implications on the line. The Bears are currently ranked 5th and one game outside of being eligible for college footballs playoffs behind 4th ranked TCU. However, Baylor beat TCU in a head to head meeting earlier this year and could perhaps jump ahead of the Horned Frogs with another quality win against Kansas State this weekend.
Of course if both Baylor and TCU win in their respective matchups this weekend, they will become co-champions in the Big 12. Without a title game, the fate of both schools postseason hopes would be put into the hands of the playoff committee which would immediately draw more criticism towards the Big 12s decision to continuously forego a conference championship game at seasons end. However that entire situation could be avoided this week if the Kansas State Wildcats can pull off the upset at McLane Stadium as 7.5 point road dogs.
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At 10-2 SU, Kansas State will be looking for a win and nothing less. The Wildcats have put together a strong 2014 campaign but their resume lacks a really big win. The Wildcats did take down Oklahoma in Norman but the Sooners faded a bit during the middle part of the season. The question this week is can the Wildcats overcome the nations top scoring defense and pull out what would be a huge upset on the road in Waco? Outside of the loss to TCU, the Wildcats defense has played well giving up just 20.3 points per game (17th in FBS). Obviously the Bears offense will present a big challenge this Saturday but the Wildcats have been solid nevertheless.
Offensively, the Wildcats must keep pressure on Baylors defense and maintain a rhythm throughout the game. The Bears defense is pretty decent but they ride on a wave of confidence. Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has played really well behind center tossing 18 touchdowns with just 5 picks. Waters is a dual threat type of quarterback and has rushed for 8 additional touchdowns on the ground. The Wildcats also have two excellent receivers in Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton who have combined for 2,100 yards and 13 touchdowns. However the key to getting those guys the football is establishing the run. When Kansas State runs the ball effectively, things always tend to open up in the passing game and the offense will need that type of balance to contend this Saturday.
Meanwhile it is safe to say that Baylors offense cannot be stopped but only limited at best. The Bears own the nations top scoring unit averaging a blistering 49.8 points per game. The offense is loaded with playmakers. Quarterback Bryce Petty is approaching the 3,000 yard mark and has thrown 25 touchdowns with just 5 picks. The Bears passing attack gets most of the credit offensively as the team averages 340 yards per game. (6th in FBS). However, Baylors running attack has been equally effective racking up more than 240 yards per game on the ground (20th in FBS). Running back Shock Linwood has amassed 1,135 yards with 15 touchdowns on the ground alone and he will play an important part towards Saturdays outcome. I believe that Kansas State can hold their own on the edges in the passing game but their true test will come up in the middle against the Bears rushing attack. If Kansas State can stop the run, they will have a shot.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Two very strong offenses will be on stage this Saturday night but I think defense will be a story as well. I do not expect the shootout that most expect and believe the total is inflated quite a bit. Take the under 71!