Iowa vs Missouri Picks, Predictions & Best Bets – Music City Bowl

Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Missouri Tigers (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Music City Bowl
Date/Time: Monday, December 30, 2024 at 2:30PM EST
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN

The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Missouri Tigers in the Music City Bowl in Nashville on Monday. Fans coming to Nissan Stadium will get to see a pair of good teams from the Big Ten and SEC. Missouri could never reach the higher levels of the conference this season, but still went 9-3, finishing in strong fashion with two wins to close the regular season, including a 28-21 win over Arkansas on November 30. Iowa last played on the 29th of November, also ending the season with two wins, including a 13-10 win over Nebraska. Who should we get behind in Nashville on Monday?

How Each Team Looks

With a month since their last games, both teams are dealing with some issues, while it’s not really being clear how the layoff itself will impact either team. I liked how Iowa finished the season, and even if that late-season loss to UCLA as favorites was a letdown, they still won four of their last five while finding their defense to be in nice form to close the season. With 67 points allowed combined in their last five games, their defense looked good, they were getting after the passer, and they were registering a lot of big game-changing kinds of plays.

Missouri may have sputtered some after a 6-1 start before rebounding to close strong, ending up the number-19 team in the nation. They had some tough opponents late and a heavy concentration of tough road games. While their defense hasn’t been nearly as stout as Iowa’s and they don’t have same difference-makers on that side of the ball, they try to make up for it with a pass-rush that can do some damage in the right spots. And this season, they had some key offensive talent for Brady Cook to exploit with running backs Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll, along with receiving talent like Theo Wease, Jr and Luther Burden, III.

Player Movement

Right now, things seem to be still up in the air in certain aspects. For Missouri, Cook is listed as doubtful. We hear that Wease might not play, though we hear he also might, and they’re going to be without Burden. On Iowa, they will be without 1537-yard rusher Kaleb Johnson. Brendan Sullivan is looking to get back into action this week after missing a ton of time. It’s unclear how much of a difference that makes, but he could be an improvement. Some top people on both offenses are missing, and that’s part of the reason we’re looking at such a low total.

What to Expect

With so much key offensive talent out of action and even the status of those remaining in a state of doubt, we look for the more sticky parts of each team, and that would be their defenses. And while Missouri has some aspects of their defense that could deliver against an Iowa offense that wasn’t so good, to begin with and is now without their only real weapon, the edge would appear to go to the Hawkeyes in this department. Not that they’re totally intact, but if looking for the most together part of either team, they would definitely get the nod.

With both offenses coming off a break and dealing with issues relating to that, defense would appear to be a high premium in this game. Iowa isn’t figuring to deliver much offense in this spot, hence the need for their “D” to really come through. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz typically has his teams ready to go during bowl-season, last year being an exception—something they should try to atone for in this game. I just get this impression, whether justified or not, that Iowa will be more ready to hit the ground running in this spot and will be closer to being themselves overall.

I think despite Missouri being ranked that, it is Iowa who played the tougher teams and had the more difficult overall schedule. Missouri was resourceful as a whole, not allowing turnovers to spoil games and doing a lot of the little things like having good special teams play. It’s just that they’re running into an Iowa team whose special teams is on-point and their defense is the more-bankable commodity. I wonder how difficult it’s going to be for Missouri to get into the end zone. This is a game that looks to be one where points are a bit precious. Iowa being a team that can play defense and special teams so well while also being a team that doesn’t undermine itself with penalties could go a long way in a contest of this nature.

Take the Points

Again, Missouri won 9 games this season and finished with enough style to show they’re still getting it done late. The idea of the Tigers going against this Iowa defense with depreciated pieces or ones that won’t be fully deployed doesn’t bode well. Iowa might not be able to withstand many slipups, and if the Missouri offense starts gaining traction in this game, the Hawkeyes could be in trouble. Still, with Sullivan maybe getting in there, they’re still a good team that should be able to do enough to at least hang in there and give the Tigers a good sweat. I’ll take the Hawkeyes.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Iowa Hawkeyes plus 3 points.

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