Iowa vs. Maryland Prediction: College Football Week 13 Picks

Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) at Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 4-6), 11/23/24
When: noon ET Saturday, Nov. 23
Where: SECU Stadium
TV: BTN

Point spread: IA -6.5/MD +6.5
Money line: Hawkeyes -245/Terps +200
Over/under: 46

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The Maryland Terrapins started well enough this season, but a recent slump puts them in a tough spot, as far as bowl-eligibility goes, heading into Saturday afternoon’s bout with Iowa in College Park.

The Terps started 3-1 this season as they chased a fourth straight bowl bid. But now, at 4-6 overall, Maryland must win this week and next to make a bowl.

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are already bowl-eligible, although they’re also out of the running in the Big 10 championship race. So Iowa will play these last couple of weeks for a decent bowl bid.

The Line

This week’s CFB betting market opened Iowa at -5.5 over Maryland, with an O/U of right around 45. Early betting action bumped the Hawkeyes to -6.5.

According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings (Sagarin.com) the line on this game should be 9.5 points. Our suspicion is that the discrepancy has to do with Iowa’s somewhat uncertain quarterback situation.

Iowa Betting Preview

 
The Hawkeyes are trying to bounce back this week after falling at UCLA two Fridays ago, 20-17. Iowa then had last weekend off.
 
The Hawkeyes, favored by 6.5 over the Bruins, scored the first 10 points of the game. But a bad Iowa interception in the second quarter turned the game completely around. The Hawkeyes finally fell down for good with about five minutes left and could not respond.
 
Iowa got out-gained by the Bruins 414-265, out-rushed 211-80, and lost time of possession by a 38:22 split to complete a surprisingly poor performance.
 
Two games ago, Iowa ran the ball for 329 yards and beat Wisconsin 42-10. Three games ago, the Hawkeyes ran for 203 and beat Northwestern 40-14. So it looked like Iowa was headed in a good direction until the trip to LA.
 
At 6-4 overall the Hawkeyes are already bowl-eligible but at 4-3 in conference play they’re out of the running for a spot in the Big 10 championship game. So Iowa’s basically playing from here on out for a better bowl bid.

Maryland Betting Preview

 
Meanwhile, the Terrapins tote a three-game losing skid into Saturday after falling at home to Rutgers last Saturday 31-17. Maryland, favored at -4, led the Knights 17-14 well into the third quarter. But the Terps got out-scored 17-0 from there to lose.
 
Maryland actually out-gained Rutgers 457-375 but missed a field goal and turned the ball over four times in Knights territory, three times on downs.
 
Two games ago the Terrapins lost at Oregon 39-18 but covered at +24. Three games ago Maryland lost at Minnesota 48-23.
 
At 4-6 overall, the Terps now need wins Saturday and next week against Penn State to become bowl-eligible.
 
On the personnel front, Iowa QB McNamara missed the last two games (concussion) but apparently will get the start Saturday.
 
These teams met most recently three seasons ago, a 51-14 Iowa victory also at College Park.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played three common opponents this season, Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota. Iowa played those foes to 2-1, both SU and ATS, and +18 YPG, and Maryland to 0-3, both SU and ATS and -30 YPG.

Totals Report

• The overs are 8-2 in Hawkeyes games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.
•  The overs are 7-3 in Terps games, which are averaging 56 points.

Free College Football Pick

Iowa got out-played by UCLA its last time out, but we expect a much better performance this week. Also, we expect the Hawkeyes to win the ground battle in this game. Also, Iowa owns the better performance against common opponents. And finally, playing on the road keeps the spread a little more amenable. We like the Hawkeyes, minus the points, for Saturday.

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