Iowa vs. Iowa State: Cy-Hawk Rivalry Prediction & Picks

Iowa State Cyclones (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0, 1-0), 9/7/24

When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 7

Where: Kinnick Stadium

TV: CBS

Point Spread: ISU +3.5/Iowa -3.5

Money line: Iowa St. +130/IA -150

Over/under: 35.5

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It’s the annual battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy when Iowa hosts rival Iowa State Saturday afternoon in Iowa City.

These teams played some tough, low-scoring games over recent seasons and there’s little reason to believe Saturday’s game won’t play out along similar lines.

The line on this game involves a hook on a key number, which may well decide who cashes in.

NCAAF Betting Odds

Most of the Week 2 college football betting market opened Iowa at -2.5 over Iowa State, with an over/under of right around 37. Early betting action since bumped the Hawkeyes to -3.5 and dropped that total to 35.5.

From five days out it looks like it’s gonna be a beautiful day for football Saturday at Kinnick Stadium, sunny with temps in the 60’s.

Iowa State-Iowa Betting Preview

ISU opened its season last Saturday with an underwhelming 21-3 victory at home over FCS North Dakota. The Cyclones, favored by 30 points, scored a touchdown on the second play of the game but only led 14-3 through three quarters. Iowa State put the game away with a score early in the fourth but never threatened to cover that spread.

The Cyclones out-gained UND 353-295 but 54 of their yards came on the first play of the game. Iowa State also got out-rushed 174-86 and lost time of possession by a 38:22 split.

Sophomore QB Rocco Becht looked good, though, hitting on 20/26 passes for 267 yards and two scores, without a pick.

Last year Becht hit on 63 percent of his throws while compiling a 23/8 TD/INT ratio. So he’s definitely one of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12 right now.

ISU returned 19 starters this season from a team that played 7-6 last season, including four along the offensive line and nine on defense. The Cyclones are playing against a wins over/under of 7.5.

Meanwhile Iowa opened its season last Saturday with a 40-0 victory over FCS Illinois State. The Hawkeyes, favored at -21, only led the Redbirds 6-0 at the half. But Iowa scored touchdowns on its first two possessions of the second half and later pulled away for the win and the cover.

The Hawkeyes out-gained Illinois State 492-189, out-rushed the Redbirds 241-56 and won the turnover battle 3-0. But then again that’s what we’d expect them to do against an opponent like that.

Iowa returned 18 starters this season – well, starters and guys who started somewhere else last season – from a team that played 10-4 last year. That included four seniors along the O line and seven of last year’s top eight tacklers. The Hawkeyes are playing against a wins O/U of 8.5.

Iowa State-Iowa Recent History

The Cyclones tried to make up some ground in this rivalry a while back, winning 10 of 17 meetings from 1998-2014, but the Hawkeyes re-established control by winning seven of the last eight outright, going 5-3 ATS along the way.

Last year’s meeting was pretty typical for this rivalry as of late; tough, low-scoring, Iowa coming away with a 20-13 win at Ames. The Hawkeyes used a blocked field goal and a pick-6 to lead 17-0 in the second quarter and held on from there for the W and the money at -3.5.

Iowa State actually out-gained Iowa last year 290-235, playing in comeback mode, but that early pick-6 really cost ‘em.

Also, last year’s game played under a total of 34.5.

College Football Betting Trends

The underdog is 4-2 ATS over the last six meetings in this series, with an average margin of victory of 5.7 points.

Totals Report

• Unders are 5-0 over the last five meetings between these teams, which averaged just 29 total points.
• Iowa State’s win over North Dakota last week didn’t even get halfway to its total of 51.
• Iowa’s win over Illinois State last week only played over a total of 36.5 when the Hawkeyes tacked on a couple insurance scores in the fourth quarter.
• Last year Unders played a combined 19-8 in Iowa and Iowa State games.

Free College Football Pick

Iowa is probably the better team in this match-up and should win this game but our guess is it will be close. Iowa State under-performed against an inferior opponent last week; we expect better from the Cyclones Saturday. And for a game where the winner might only score 17 points we like 3.5 in our pocket. We’re taking ISU plus those points.