Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners Week 11 Pick

Iowa State Cyclones (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, October 26th, 2019 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, OK
TV: FOX

Point Spread: ISU +14 / OU -14 (BetNow)
Total: 67

Power Ratings: Oklahoma -16

Takeaways From Week 10

The Cyclones come into this game on a bye preceded by an upset loss suffered at the hands of the Oklahoma State. ISU came into their match-up with the Pokes as an 11.5-point favorite when they hosted Oklahoma State on October 26th in Ames but were defeated 34-27 by the Cowboys.

Oklahoma also comes into this game on a much-needed bye after losing their first game of the season in the week prior. OU was last in action on October 26th when the Sooners traveled to the Little Apple to square off with the Kansas State Wildcats. Closing as a 23.5-point favorite, OU was upset outright by K-State 48-41. The Sooners trailed by as much as 25 in their loss against the Cats.

How the Public is Betting the Iowa State-Oklahoma Game

Presently, 69% of the consensus like the Sooners here laying the points. As a result, the line has moved upward with OU laying an additional point to the guests. Oklahoma opened as an initial -13 favorite.

More Picks: Get all of our game previews: Week 11 College Football Picks

The Historicals

These two teams last met in 2018 in Ames, Iowa. Oklahoma defeated Iowa State 37-27 but failed to green up closing as an 18.5-point favorite. It is also worth annotating that the last time Iowa State came to Norman, they pulled off a remarkable 38-31 upset of the Sooners when Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield was under center. OU closed as a 31-point favorite in the aforementioned loss.

Betting Trends

The Cyclones have covered in the last three meetings between both parties as a 21, 31, and most recently 18.5-point underdog, respectively. However, this is the lowest number of points that the Clones have been working with in five years. When OU and ISU met in 2014 in Ames, the Sooners thrashed the Cyclones 59-14 to cover easy as a 15.5-point favorite.

Injury Concerns

Oklahoma Cornerback Parnell Motley will miss the first half of the game after being subjected to disciplinary action due to his ejection from OU’s last game against K-State. Motley is a key member of OU’s secondary, which has been starkly improved compared to the previous year’s editions.

Why We Like Oklahoma To Cover

Some other betting sites would suggest that the Sooners are undervalued here. Given the fact that OU is a public team by proxy, this is especially phenomenal as they are prone to be overvalued. Nevertheless, I conquer with such as a take on this market. Some sharper sportsbooks opened with OU laying a half-point more than the rest of the field, and they have stayed ahead of the pack every time a line move has taken place. This resonates strongly with me as it suggests that they are re-directing action on OU to other outlets. This can mean only one thing: these books expect Oklahoma to win big and don’t want to shoulder the liability given the fact that the Sooners are indeed a public team. As a result, I suggest that backers shop around for the best line here and lay the points with OU.

Keith Pick to Cover the Spread: Oklahoma -14

When you have a Quarterback like Jalen Hurts, you can’t expect the hangover from the K-State loss to last very long. Hurts is a proper field general and has enough passion and determination to lift a bus if he chose to do so. I expect this game to be one that embellishes upon his candidacy for the Heisman Trophy, and I also anticipate Oklahoma will take out their defeat against Kansas State on this Iowa State team that has been a tough out for the Sooners as of late. This venue will also serve as an opportunity for Oklahoma to remind its cohorts, who is the main man in the Big 12. Oklahoma will offer up a spectacular effort in all phases of their game, and the Sooners not only cover this number, but I see them routing Iowa State. Traditionally, the high Over/Under would warrant a play on points, but this will not be a shootout. Instead, it will be a fireworks display provided to viewers by the Crimson and Cream.