Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats Spread Pick 11/25/23

Iowa State Cyclones (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) at Kansas State Wildcats (8-3, 7-3-1 ATS), 11/25/23

Kansas State clings to slender hopes of repeating as Big 12 Conference champions, heading into its regular-season finale against Iowa State on Saturday night in Manhattan.

The Wildcats, who unexpectedly won the Big 12 last year, need a victory on Saturday and help from elsewhere to return to the conference championship game. The Cyclones, meanwhile, are playing the role of spoiler. This might make them a dangerous opponent.

K State is favored by double digits for this 107th meeting with ISU. Who do we like for our free CFB betting pick?

NCAAF Betting Odds

The Week 13 college football betting market opened with Kansas State at -11.5 for Saturday night, with an over/under of around 48. Early betting action nudged that spread down to 10.5.

According to Sagarins ratings at Sagarin.com, the line on this game should be 10.5 points. How ‘bout that?

Iowa State-Kansas State Betting Preview

The Cyclones are 1-2 SU and ATS in their last three games after falling at home to Texas 26-16 last Saturday. Iowa State, getting 6.5 points, scored the first three points of the game but trailed 6-3 at halftime. They fell behind 23-9 early in the fourth quarter, narrowed the gap to 23-16 with plenty of time remaining, but couldn’t close the distance.

ISU was out-gained by the Longhorns 404-332 and managed just nine yards on the ground.

After a 2-4 start this season, the Cyclones went on a 4-1 run to stay in the Big 12 race and become bowl-eligible. However, last week’s loss eliminated them from conference championship contention, so they’ll play Saturday’s game for pride.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats stayed in the hunt for back-to-back Big 12 championships with a 31-27 rivalry win at Kansas last Saturday. Favored by seven points, Kansas State trailed the Jayhawks 20-16 at halftime and 27-16 early in the third quarter. But the Wildcats rallied to score the last two touchdowns of the game, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

K State was out-gained by Kansas 396-331 and allowed 234 rushing yards. However, they won the turnover battle 3-1 and returned a blocked extra point for two points at a critical moment.

After a 1-1 start in Big 12 play, Kansas State is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS since, with their only loss coming in an overtime game at Texas.

At 6-2 in conference play, the Wildcats need a win on Saturday and help from elsewhere to reach the Big 12 championship game. However, they are a longshot; Kansas State needs a combination of losses by Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State—all of whom will have finished their games before this one kicks off—and their own victory.

Even if K State is eliminated early, we expect them to give their all to win this game.

Common Opponents

These two teams faced five common opponents this season: Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, and TCU. The Wildcats went 3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, and +36 yards per game against these teams, while the Cyclones went 3-2 both SU and ATS but -8 YPG.

Iowa State-Kansas State Recent History

The Cyclones defeated the Wildcats in three of the four meetings through 2022, but Kansas State won last year’s game in Ames 10-9 with a fourth-quarter field goal.

College Football Betting Trends

The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS over the last nine meetings between these teams.

Totals Report

The Unders are 7-4 in Cyclones games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.

The Overs are 6-5 in Wildcats games, which are averaging 57 points.

The Unders are 3-1 over the last four meetings between these teams.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Kansas State has the edge on offense, but Iowa State may have the superior defense. Also, their performances against common opponents this season are closely matched. Additionally, six of the last nine meetings between these teams were decided by five points or less, including last year’s game. Taking all these factors into account, 10.5 points seems excessive. We favor Iowa State plus the points.