Iowa State at Kansas: Is This the Best Bet in the Big 12 This Week?

Iowa State Cyclones (7-1 SU, ATS 5-2)  vs Kansas Jayhawks (2-6 SU, ATS 2-5)
Date: 3:30 EST Saturday, November 9th
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV: FS1
Point Spread: ISU -3/KU +3
Money Line: ISU -148/KU  +123
Over/Under: 50.5

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is the neutral site for the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks matchup, set for 3:30 ET on Saturday, November 9th. Iowa State comes in with a 7-1 record this season, while Kansas is 2-6. The game is being televised on FS1, with Iowa State as the -3-point favorite. The over/under line is currently 50.5 points.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Kansas Jayhawks have the leg up at 2-1. However, against the spread, the Iowa State Cyclones went 2-1. The over/under record in these matchups was 1-2 on an average of 62 points per game.

Iowa State Cyclones Recent Form:

At 7-1, Iowa State is a lock for bowl eligibility and holds a 21.8% chance of winning the Big 12. They also have the 14th-best odds to make the CFB playoff at 24.1%. The Cyclones are 3-0 on the road and 3-1 at home this season.

Iowa State is 5-2 against the spread, with a perfect 3-0 record on the road. They’ve been favored in six of their eight games, going 4-2 ATS as the favorite. Their average scoring margin this season is +15 points per game.

The Cyclones’ over/under record stands at 4-3, with their games averaging 46 points. This week’s line is set at 50.5 points, higher than their average line of 47.7 points.

Heading into week 11, Iowa State’s offense is averaging 30.5 points per game, placing them 40th in the nation. They are ranked 46th in our offensive power rankings. On third downs, they have converted 43.4% of their attempts.

Quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 2,011 yards this season, completing 60.9% of his passes. He has 13 touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 94. Carson Hansen leads the rushing attack with 444 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Jaylin Noel has 725 receiving yards and three touchdowns on 43 receptions.

Iowa State’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 15.5 points per game. They’ve excelled against the pass, giving up only 146.6 yards per game, the 6th fewest in the country, and holding opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 45.2, the 2nd lowest nationally.

In their recent game against Texas Tech, Iowa State’s defense allowed 23 points, with 237 passing yards and 129 rushing yards. They also forced two interceptions in the narrow 23-22 loss.

Away Injury Report

Kansas Jayhawks Recent Form:

Kansas enters Week 11 with a 2-6 record, facing Iowa State at home. The Jayhawks are ranked 36th in our power rankings, but their chances of becoming bowl-eligible are slim at 4.2%.

They’ve been favored in four of their eight games this season, going 1-3 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +5.4 points, but they’ve struggled against the spread, posting a 2-5 record.

The over/under line for this week is set at 50.5 points. Kansas games have averaged 54.6 points, with their over/under record standing at 4-3.

Heading into week 11, Kansas is averaging 30 points per game, placing them 43rd in the nation. They are ranked 33rd in our offensive power rankings. The Jayhawks have excelled on third downs, converting 51% of their attempts, the 5th best rate in college football. Their ground game is their strength, averaging 212.4 rushing yards per game.

Devin Neal leads the rushing attack with 758 yards, eight touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has thrown for 1,521 yards with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Kansas ranks 100th in passing yards per game. Luke Grimm leads the receivers with 429 yards and five touchdowns.

Despite forcing two interceptions, Kansas’ defense allowed 29 points in their recent 29-27 loss to Kansas State. They gave up 21 first downs and 337 total yards, including 238 passing yards and 99 rushing yards on 33 attempts.

On the season, Kansas ranks 41st nationally, allowing 24.6 points per game. Opponents have averaged 159.8 rushing yards per game and 214.8 passing yards, completing 58.3% of their throws against the Jayhawks’ defense.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Iowa State Cyclones have a straight-up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 25 points per game in this stretch.
• In their last five games at home, the Kansas Jayhawks have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 30 points per game in this stretch.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Kansas has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 3-7 straight up.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Iowa State Cyclones have a straight up record of 7-3. But their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.

Free Pick

Even though their records don’t show it, this is actually a pretty evenly-matched game. Kansas is just 2-6 this year but has a decent offense. However, they are going up a really good Iowa State defense, which figures to give them fits. With the Cyclones being able to limit the strength of Kansas’ team, I see this as a good spot to take Iowa State at -3.

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