Iowa at UCLA Analysis & Point Spread Prediction | Week 11

Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) at UCLA Bruins (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)
When: 9 pm ET Friday, Nov. 8
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
TV: Fox
CFB Betting Odds: Iowa -6.5 / UCLA +6.5
Money Line: Iowa -245 / UCLA +200
Over/Under Total: 44.5

Two teams playing winning ball the last couple of weeks meet when Iowa and UCLA provide this week’s edition of Friday night Big 10 football betting action from the Rose Bowl.

The Hawkeyes struggled through a 4-3 start to this season but won their last two games by a combined score of 82-24. Meanwhile, the Bruins started just 1-5 this season but won their last two games on the Big 10 road to keep their hopes of bowl eligibility alive.

Which team will make it three in a row Friday night?

The Line

The CFB Week 11 betting market opened Iowa as a -5.5 spread favorite for Friday night, with an O/U line of around 45. Early betting action bumped the Hawkeyes to -6.5. According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings, the line for this game should be Iowa -7.

Iowa Betting Preview

The Hawkeyes are coming off their second straight convincing win, a 42-10 whooping of Wisconsin last Saturday. Iowa spotted the Badgers the first three points of the game, then scored the next 28, cruising to an easy victory and the cover at -2.5. The Hawkeyes, playing with their backup QB, out-gained Wisconsin 422-261, racked up 329 yards on the ground, and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Now, is that all because Iowa is so good, or is Wisconsin that bad?

Two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes ran for 203 yards, beat Northwestern 40-14, and covered at -17. At 6-3 overall, Iowa is already bowl-eligible for the 12th straight season. At 4-2 in conference play, the Hawkeyes are tied for 5th place in the Big 10, two games behind Indiana and Oregon, both 6-0.

UCLA Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Bruins are also coming off back-to-back victories, most recently a 27-20 win at Nebraska last Saturday. UCLA, catching 7.5 points, led 13-7 at the half, scored on a pick-6 to start the second half, and held on from there, cashing in at +280 on the money line. The Bruins out-gained the Cornhuskers 358-322 and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Two weeks ago, UCLA racked up 478 yards of offense and won at Rutgers 35-32. Sitting at 3-5, the Bruins need three wins over their last four games to become bowl-eligible. They’ll face Washington, USC, and Fresno State after this matchup, a tough slate to finish the season.

On the injury front, Iowa QB Cade McNamara missed last week’s game (concussion) and is listed as doubtful for Friday night. Backup Brendan Sullivan, who has starting experience from his time at Northwestern, performed well last week, though he wasn’t asked to do much.

The last meeting between these programs was in the 1986 Rose Bowl, where UCLA claimed a 45-28 victory.

By the Numbers

Iowa is averaging 356 yards per game on offense this season, with 222 yards coming on the ground. Defensively, they hold opponents to 310 yards per game, with just 106 allowed on the ground. This is against what Sagarin ranks as the 38th-toughest schedule in college football.

UCLA is averaging 309 yards per game, mostly through the air, with a modest 74 yards rushing. Defensively, they allow 362 yards per game, including 100 on the ground. Sagarin ranks UCLA’s schedule as the toughest in the country.

Totals Report

The Over has hit in 8 of Iowa’s 9 games this season, with their games averaging 49 total points. The Under is 5-3 in UCLA’s games, averaging 47 points per game.

Free College Football Pick

Iowa relies heavily on its ground game, while UCLA favors the passing attack. We prefer Iowa’s ground-based approach and expect the Hawkeyes to control the tempo by winning the rushing battle. While McNamara’s absence might seem significant, backup Sullivan has experience. The Bruins, coming off consecutive upsets, face a tough challenge in going for a third straight win. Additionally, both teams faced Minnesota this season: Iowa ran for 272 yards in a 31-14 win, while UCLA fell 21-17 to the Gophers. This contrast, though limited, leans in Iowa’s favor. We’re backing Iowa to cover the spread on Friday night.

Zank’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Iowa -6.5