Indiana at Penn State Pick & Analysis 10/28/23

Indiana Hoosiers (2-5 SU, ATS 2-3) vs Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1 SU, ATS 5-1)
Date: Saturday, October 28th
Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
TV: CBS
Point Spread: Indiana +32/Penn State -32
Money Line: Indiana +2500/Penn State -10000
Over/Under: 44.5

The Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. The over/under for this matchup is currently 44.5, while Penn State is favored by -32.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The most recent matchup between these teams finished with a 45-14 win for Penn State. In the win, Penn State ran for 179 yards and threw for 304. On 3rd down, the Nittany Lions went 7/16. On the other side, Indiana completed 16 of their 29 passes for 131 yards and ran for 65 yards.

Indiana Hoosiers Recent Form:

As Indiana prepares to take on Penn State, they have a record of 2-5. The Hoosiers most recently lost to Rutgers by a score of 31-14.

Not only did Indiana lose straight-up in this matchup, but they also lost vs. the spread as 6-point underdogs. Combining for 45 points, the teams exceeded the line of 39 points.

In Indiana’s most recent loss, Brendan Sorsby not only threw for one touchdown but ran for one as well. For the game, he threw for a total of 126 yards while completing 48.4% of his passes.

The leading rusher for Indiana against Rutgers was Trent Howland. For the game, he finished with 54 while carrying the ball nine times. He did not rush for a touchdown in the game. On his one reception, Omar Cooper Jr. finished with one touchdown and 35 yards.

The Hoosiers’ defense finished the game by giving up 325 total yards to Rutgers. The team’s run defense allowed 286 yards rushing compared to 39 in the passing game. The Indiana defense, going into this week’s game, holds 104th place for points allowed, allowing 29.3 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 191.7 passing yards each game against them (39th in the country). On the ground, they’re yielding 176 rushing yards, ranking them 130th in college football.

Away Injury Report

Penn State Nittany Lions Recent Form:

Despite dropping their most recent game by a score of 20-12 to Ohio State, the Penn State Nittany Lions still have an above .500 record of 6-1 as they take on Indiana.

Against the spread, Penn State was not able to cover as 4-point underdogs. On the over/under, the line was 46.5 going into the game, resulting in the under hitting.

Quarterback Drew Allar threw for one touchdown in Penn State’s loss over Ohio State. Overall, he had a passer rating of 64.68 while completing 42.9% of his passes for 191 yards.

The leading rusher for Penn State against Ohio State was Nicholas Singleton. For the game, he finished with 48 while carrying the ball nine times. He did not rush for a touchdown in the game. Penn State’s most productive receiver in the game was KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who finished with 52 on six receptions.

The Nittany Lions’ defense finished the game by giving up 369 total yards to Ohio State. The team’s run defense allowed 83 yards rushing compared to 286 in the passing game. This season, the Nittany Lions’ defense has yielded an average of 74 rushing yards, earning them a rank of 199th. Opponents have an average of 144.7 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks attaining a passer rating of 52.3 when facing Penn State. They are currently 107th in points allowed in NCAA rankings.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Indiana are 2-3 Against the spread in their last five games on the road.
• At home, Penn State has gone 4-1 against the spread (last five).
• Penn State’s ATS record in their three most recent games as an underdog is 1-2.
• Indiana’s record vs. the spread in their five most recent games as the favorite is 1-4.

Free Pick

The spread for this Big Ten matchup is sitting at -32 points in favor of the Nittany Lions, who are coming off a disappointing loss to Ohio State. Even though Indiana has been down right bad of late, I don’t see Penn State covering. I’m taking the Hoosiers on the spread at +32.