Independence Bowl Pick: California Golden Bears vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

California Golden Bears (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

The California Golden Bears take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday in Shreveport in the Independence Bowl. Cal is coming off an up-and-down season that at least ended on a positive note, as they went into the Rose Bowl on November 25 as 9-point dogs and beat UCLA, 33-7, finishing off a nice little run at the end of the season that lands them in this bowl spot. Texas Tech was also looking strong at the end of the season, at least until running into Texas in their last game on the 24th, losing 57-7. Who should we get behind in this tricky bowl matchup on the 16th? Let’s break it down!

Form to End the Season

At the end of the long season, we want to see how both teams are holding up, and it shows positive returns on both squads on that front. After winning just one game in conference all season and having sponged some ugly losses, Cal’s three-game winning streak to end the season was impressive. We see their offense coming to life, in addition to a defense that is playing some of its best ball of the season. Since late October, only the Ducks have really made them look bad, something that happened to a lot of Pac-12 teams this past season.

Granted, the Red Raiders’ flopping around the field against Texas in their last game was a rough impression to leave heading into the college football postseason. After losing a lot of close games earlier in the season, we started to see Texas Tech steering those games into their column come season’s end. Finishing up with a nice run of wins against TCU, Kansas, and Central Florida shows them entering this spot with some life still in their legs. Neither of these teams really excelled this season, but in a bowl spot of this nature, it’s odd to find two teams who really seemed to improve over the course of the year.

Trouble for the Red Raiders on Saturday?

Since head coach Justin Wilcox came to the Golden Bears, he has been noted for his ability to get what once an institutionally weak defense up to par. For the most part, he was successful in that. But lately, we are seeing a more offense-heavy approach with the “D” maybe taking a small step back this season. Since taking over the starting duties, QB Fernando Mendoza has lent more of an aerial vibe to this offense. And from a talent standpoint, the best player on the field this coming Saturday might just be RB Jaydn Ott, who really gives this Cal offense a boost and should be a handful for a Texas Tech defense that can be exploited.

Stronger finish to the season for the Red Raiders notwithstanding, they experienced a general dip in their offensive output in 2023. They’ve seen their quarterback play suffer this season. You’d think QB Behren Morton could have gotten more out of this offense with some nice pass-catching talent, but it hasn’t come to pass. They get bailed out with RB Tahj Brooks and a strong running game, though a good left tackle entered the transfer portal. With Brooks representing a giant part of this Texas Tech offense, the shakiness of this O-line against a Cal defense that can still do damage could be a major issue.

Nice Spot for Cal?

They’ve performed well lately against decent opposition and are peaking. Their defense, which can create some havoc, has only one pertinent Red Raiders’ weapon upon which they need to focus in Brooks. It’s not an impenetrable run defense by any means. However, they’ve held up decently, other than a few hiccups in a conference where they see a lot of talent coming out of the backfield. Improvements aside, they have still given up nearly 33 points a game this season, so you can’t forecast no production from Texas Tech, but most of those defensive breakdowns happened against high-end aerial offenses—something the Red Raiders are not.

This is a Texas Tech defense that might be exploitable for a Cal offense, especially Ott. Even without the massacre against Texas in an understandable beatdown and with their otherwise strong finish to the season, the defense has been something they’ve had to overcome. Against the run, in particular, we’ve seen this aspect of their game fail them repeatedly in the Big 12. It’s just that any negative appraisal of the Texas Tech “D” can easily be countered with someone taking shots at the Cal defense. With a top corner and some other key personnel having hit the dreaded transfer portal, Cal is a risky proposition, with Brooks still being a realistic weapon for the Red Raiders. And if that secondary is easy pickings, Morton and his talented ball-catchers could provide a spark.

Take the Points

I think any position on Cal with that defense against a team holding its own in the Big 12 conference has to be taken with some trepidation. That secondary is a threat to get torched, and maybe this is where the Red Raiders lean on some higher competence on that side of the ball to prevail. I just think Cal can hold up OK in this particular matchup against a Texas Tech offense that lacks the overall spark of most of the offenses the Golden Bears have seen this season. And with Ott and some decent production from Mendoza through the air, I see them covering this number in Shreveport on Saturday. I’ll take the Golden Bears and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the California Golden Bears plus 3 points. Bet your picks for free this week by scoring a 100% bonus from one of the best betting sites on the web!