Illinois Fighting Illini at Kansas Jayhawks ML Pick

Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) at Kansas Jayhawks (1-0, 0-1), 9/8/23

When: 7:30 pm ET Friday, Sept. 8

Where: David Booth Memorial Stadium

TV: ESPN2

CFB betting odds: Ill +3/Kan -3 (Be smart! Bet on games at -105 odds! Not -110!)

Money line: Ill +135/KU -155

Over/under: 56.5

The Big Ten battles the Big 12 when Illinois takes on Kansas Friday night in Lawrence. Both these teams are in their third seasons under the current coaching regimes, and both made bowls last year. This game will be a good early test for both squads.

Which way are we going here with our free Ill/Kan pick?

College Football Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting market opened Kansas as a three-point favorite over Illinois, with an over/under of right around 55. Early betting action then bumped that total to 56.5.

Illinois-Kansas College Football Betting Preview

The Illini opened this new college football season last Saturday with an underwhelming 30-28 triumph over Toledo. Illinois drove its first possession of the season 75 yards to a touchdown but trailed 12-7 at the half. The Illini then gave up the first points of the second half to fall behind 19-7 but scored three TDs in 10 minutes to re-take the lead. Illinois then fell behind by a point with three minutes left but drove 64 yards to a game-winning field goal.

However, the Illini came up short against the spread at -7.5.

Illinois got out-gained by the Rockets 416-374, gave up 186 yards on the ground, and got called for 100 yards worth of penalties.

We will point out, though, that Toledo won the MAC last year and is the favorite to win it again this season.

The Illini only returned 12 starters this season from a team that played 8-5 last year. But it’s a good group.

Kansas, meanwhile, opened its season with a 48-17 victory over FCS Missouri State last Friday. The Jayhawks, favored by 32 but playing with their backup quarterback, scored four minutes into the game and led 17-10 at the half. Kansas only led 27-17 early in the fourth quarter before icing the game with three more scores.

But KU never came close to covering that spread.

The Jayhawks out-gained the Bears 521-217, ran the ball for 245 yards, and won the time of possession by a 34:26 split. But that’s what a decent Power 5 team should do to an average FCS opponent.

Kansas returned 17 starters this season from a team that played 6-7 last season. Coach Leipold looks like he’s got this program headed in a good direction.

On the injury front, Jayhawks QB Jalon Daniels missed last week’s game with a sore back, but he’s listed as probably for Friday night.

Illinois-Kansas History

These programs last met back in 1968, a 41-7 Kansas win at Champaign. The Jayhawks went on to tie for first place in the Big 8 that season.

College Football Betting Trends

The Big 12 played 3-1 both SU and ATS vs. the Big Ten last season.

Totals Report

The unders played 8-4 in Illini games last season, which averaged just 37 total points. But last week’s game against Toledo played over a total of 45.

The overs played 9-4 in Jayhawks games last season, which averaged 71 points. And last week’s game against Missouri State played over a total of 60.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Both these teams are on the improve, and this should be a good tight game. Kansas gets the check mark on offense, but Illinois, despite its performance last week, gets the check mark on defense. The Illini are also 8-1 ATS on the road under Coach Bielema. We don’t need the points; we like Illinois to win outright.