Miami vs Florida Betting Predictions: Jay Horne’s Expert Picks

No. 19 Miami Hurricanes (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

NCAA College Football Week 1

Date/Time: Saturday August 31st, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville, FL.

TV: ABC

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: MIA -2.5/UF +2.5 (Make the Canes a -17.5 favorite or the Gators a +22.5 underdog by adding either into a massive 20 point college football teaser only found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: MIA -145/Fla +125

Total: 54

For many decades, the Florida Gators were among the most prestigious programs in college football. However, the Gators’ once lustrous program has suffered three straight losing seasons, which is the longest consecutive losing streak the program has experienced since the World War II era. In the first two seasons under Head Coach Billy Napier, the Gators are a combined 11-14 SU, which includes a five-game losing streak to close out the 2023 season. Despite those dark clouds overhead, the Gators do have some optimism going into the 2024 campaign, including the 2nd-most starters returning from any team in the SEC. Needless to say, this could be a make or break year for the Napier regime as Florida looks to dig themselves out of the mediocracy for the first time in recent memory.

The Gators chances for redemption will be tested immediately this season as they open against the no. 19 Miami Hurricanes which will take place on Saturday at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Oddly enough, this will be the first meeting between Miami and Florida since the 2019 season and just the 3rd meeting since the 2008 season. However, the Hurricanes have held the upper-hand in recent meetings winning 5 of the last seven and will be slight betting favorites to keep that trend intact. Similar to Florida, the Hurricanes have been stuck in mediocrity in recent years, failing to win more than eight games since the 2017 season. However, the Hurricanes also have optimism as well and will be returning many of the key pieces that produced the 2nd best offense in the ACC last year. How far will this offense take them? Only time will tell!

Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators Betting Analysis

Usually when you think of a big ACC vs. SEC match-up, the traditional line of thinking is that the ACC team would have the speed advantage highlighted by the skill positions and the SEC team would have the size and strength in the trenches. However, this year’s Miami-Florida match-up is the exact opposite. The Hurricanes have one of the best offensive fronts in the country and will be counting on two transfer portal players, in QB Cam Ward (Washington State) and RB Damien Martinez (Oregon State), to take advantage of their strength along the offensive line. In all reality, Martinez should be a good fit for Head Coach Mario Cristobal’s system but it will be interesting to see how quick Ward adapts to the new system. Ward yields extra athleticism at the quarterback position compared to last year’s starter Tyler Van Dyke, but Miami will need Ward to be effective down the field if this offense is going to take things to the next level.

For the match-up against Florida, the Gators have some really good talent at select points on both sides of the football. QB Graham Mertz completed 72.9% passing for 20 touchdowns and just three picks last year, which exceeded expectations by a wide margin. Running back Montrell Johnson Jr is a tough runner that will lead the Gators backfield. However, the Gators did lose RB Trevor Etienne over the offseason which will hurt but I believe the bigger concerns are along the line on both sides of the ball. Florida’s depth and talent along the lines really showed during the latter stages of the 2023 season. Despite some moves to help matters, I’m not confident that concerns have been answered. In fact, I think it’s safe to say this Florida team lacks the overall talent that we have come to expect. With that said, Florida can still compete in this game if they can hold up at the line of scrimmage, but it will be a tough challenge.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends

• Miami is 3-6 ATS in the last nine games.
• Miami is 1-4 SU in the last five games.
• Miami has hit the “over” in 6 of the last eight games.
• Miami is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games against Florida.
• Florida is 1-4 ATS in the last five games.
• Florida is 0-5 SU in the last five games.
• Florida has hit the “over” in 7 of the last eight games.
• The “under” has cashed in 4 of the last five games between Miami and Florida.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators Betting Prediction

For this particular match-up, I really like Miami both from a talent and an experience narrative. The Hurricanes should have the better team for this early-season match-up, and I think they will take care of business!

Jay’s Pick: Take Miami -2.5