Houston vs. Arizona Week 12 CFB Picks: Why You Should Fade Arizona

Houston Cougars (4-5 SU, ATS 5-4)  vs Arizona Wildcats (3-6 SU, ATS 1-7)
Date: 10:15 EST Friday, November 15th
Location: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
TV: FS1
Point Spread: UH +2/AZ -2
Money Line: UH +102/AZ  -123
Over/Under: 44.5

FS1 is handling the TV coverage for this week 12 college football matchup between the Houston Cougars and Arizona Wildcats. Kick-off is set for 10:15 ET from Arizona Stadium in Tucson. The over/under line is currently sitting at 44.5 points, with the Wildcats as the slight -2-point favorites at home. The money line odds are +102 for Houston and -123 for Arizona. Both teams are looking to improve on their 3-6 records for the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Last season, the Houston Cougars and Arizona Wildcats did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Arizona Wildcats have the leg up at 2-1. The Arizona Wildcats also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 33 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Houston Cougars Recent Form:

Houston enters Week 12 with a 4-5 record, facing Arizona on the road. They are ranked 74th in our power rankings and have a 23.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Cougars are 3-2 at home and 1-3 on the road this season.

Against the spread, Houston is 5-4, with a -6.8 average scoring margin. They’ve covered in three of their five home games and are 2-2 ATS on the road. They’ve been favored in two games, going 1-1 ATS as the favorite and 4-3 as the underdog.

Their over/under record is 1-8, with their games averaging 37.2 points. Houston’s average over/under line is 46.7 points, and this week’s line is set at 44.5 points.

Heading into week 12, Houston’s offense ranks 112th in our offensive power rankings, scoring just 15.2 points per game. Their passing game has struggled, averaging 148.7 yards per game, and they have converted only 27.5% of their third-down attempts. Quarterback Donovan Smith has thrown for 867 yards with four touchdowns and eight interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 68.

Houston is 43rd in rushing attempts, averaging 145.1 yards per game on the ground. Re’Shaun Sanford II leads the team with 300 rushing yards, averaging 4 yards per carry, and has scored one touchdown. Joseph Manjack IV has 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season.

Houston’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 34th nationally by allowing just 22 points per game. In their recent game against Kansas State, they gave up 19 points but also forced two interceptions. The defense held Kansas State to 99 rushing yards on 33 attempts and allowed 238 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 136 rushing yards per game on 31.9 attempts and 185.7 passing yards against Houston, with a completion percentage of 62.2% and a passer rating of 90.8.

Away Injury Report

Arizona Wildcats Recent Form:

Arizona enters Week 12 with a 3-6 record and a 77th-place ranking in our CFB power rankings. They have just a 3.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, the Wildcats are 1-3, and they’ve been favored in four of their nine games this season.

Their ATS record stands at 1-7, with an average scoring margin of -9 points per game. At home, they are 0-4 against the spread and have gone 0-4 ATS as the favorite.

Arizona’s over/under record is 4-4, with their games averaging 53.2 points. The average O/U line is 55.6 points, and this week’s line is set at 44.5 points.

Arizona’s offense has been centered around their passing game, ranking 28th in passing attempts and 29th in completions, averaging 259.8 yards per game, which places them 40th nationally. Noah Fifita, their quarterback, has thrown for 2,324 yards with a 61.2% completion rate, recording 13 touchdowns and ten interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 83.

Overall, Arizona is 78th in scoring, averaging 22.1 points per game, and they are ranked 80th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is 39.5%. On the ground, they average 116 rushing yards per game. Quali Conley leads the rushing attack with 570 yards and seven touchdowns. Tetairoa McMillan has 1,066 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

Arizona’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 31.1 points per game, including 56 points in their recent 56-12 loss to UCF. In that game, they gave up 406 total yards, with 177 rushing yards and 229 passing yards, though they did manage one interception.

Opponents are averaging 173 rushing yards per game against Arizona, while quarterbacks have posted a 100.1 passer rating, completing 63.7% of their throws for an average of 223.6 passing yards per game.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Houston Cougars have a straight-up record of 3-7 while going 5-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 20 points per game in this stretch.
• Through their last five home games, Arizona has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 2-3 while averaging 19 points per game.
• Houston has done well both straight up and vs. the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Arizona Wildcats have a straight up record of 7-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-7.

Free Pick

The largest mismatch heading into this week’s matchup is Houston’s offense vs Arizona’s defense. And even though they are on the road, I see them putting up a lot of points this week. Arizona is just 1-7 vs the spread this year, and I don’t see them covering at -2. I’m not only like Houston to cover at +2, but I like them on the money line at +102.

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