Holiday Bowl Predictions: Louisville vs. USC Pick ATS

The Louisville Cardinals come to Petco Park on Wednesday to battle the USC Trojans in the Holiday Bowl. Both teams enter this matchup on the heels of some long breaks. Lousiville last played in their conference title game on the 2nd of this month, losing to unbeaten FSU, 16-6. It was still a successful season for the 10-win Cardinals. USC, meanwhile, last played on November 18, losing 38-20 to the Bruins in their crosstown rivalry game. Can they rise up for this bowl spot coming off a long sabbatical, or will we see the Cardinals put a cherry atop their season in this one?

The Power of Positive Energy

Despite having come up short in the conference title game in what was a winnable spot, the Cardinals have eclipsed expectations this season with a big year. It didn’t end the way they would have liked, losing to the ‘Noles and the Wildcats of Kentucky the week before that. Leading to that point, the Cardinals had won 10 of 11 games, laying to waste the bulk of their ACC Conference opposition, including a nice 33-20 win over Notre Dame along the way.

It’s just that any USC backer basing a pick on Louisville’s uneven finish to the season has to look inwardly, as well. Even if you saw holes in USC’s 6-0 start, no one could imagine things would go off the rails to this extent. It’s come to the point that since early October, the only non-negative thing to happen to this team was a one-point win over Cal, 50-49, where they once again missed covering the spread by a long shot. Their 9-point loss to Oregon was the only time since way back in week two that they covered the spread. A defense identified as a potential hurdle this season descended to slapstick-status and it’s safe to say that the Trojans land in this spot with a big old thud.

Finding Silver Lining for the Trojans

We see all this bad news on the Trojans, compounded by the machinations of the sport, as former Heisman winner and quarterback Caleb Williams will opt out of this spot, leaving QB Miller Moss behind center for the Trojans. With a still-intact crew of offensive players and the time Moss has been afforded to practice and get comfortable, maybe we still see a USC offensive machine capable of putting up points. Not as consistent as before, it’s still a powerful part of the team and should give pause for thought on those looking to now give this offense over a TD in points. There is still abundant offensive talent led by a good recruit in Moss who has looked good when he has played, albeit he hasn’t played a whole lot. We still need to keep an eye on personnel leading up to this game, as not having guys like Marshawn Lloyd would be costly and right now there is some conflicting data. Anyone taking USC would like that offensive corps to be as intact as possible.

A Trojan backer might also find some solace in how Louisville finished the season, with their offense looking a little flummoxed late, especially with their 6-point output against FSU. Cardinals’ head coach Jeff Brohm should be able to get this offense in shape, just as he did in commandeering this 10-win season. QB Jack Plummer, with whom Brohm goes back to Purdue, will be looking to make a good impression here and not make it, so it was a good season that just came apart at the seams in the end. However, we see bell-cow back Jawhar Jordan has declared for the draft and will miss this, with Brohm saying others might take the same route. Again, a bet on either side should be accompanied with a solid handle on what personnel will actually be present, something that isn’t entirely-clear as of press-time.

Lots of Moving Pieces

A position on Louisville is understandable even with the spread over a TD and that not seeming like terrific value. The Cardinals not having Jordan, a slow finish to the season, and the iffy state of their own defense makes it a little challenging. Say what you will about USC’s flop season, there is still giant offensive talent on that sideline. And sure, USC’s defense has betrayed them nearly every step of the way since their fast start, but if this devolves into a footrace, is that really a context where you can picture a Jordan-less Louisville thriving? Is it possible that some new faces on the USC offense could actually help, as they vie for key positions in next season’s Lincoln Riley offense? Are we playing up USC’s failings this season too hard, in light of Louisville going from 10-1 to 10-3, then taking a month off? Isn’t it possible that they have been totally stripped of the momentum they were riding in October and November?

Take the Points

It isn’t easy, especially for anyone who had the misfortune of betting USC this season, with that almost always going badly in 2023. It’s not easy to take a team that seemed to welcome the finish line of the regular season and six weeks later expect anything to be in order. I just don’t think Louisville is positioned on the opposite end of the spectrum and is suffering from some of the same issues. This spread is really tough. That “over” almost seems like the move here, but in an ATS sense, I think a stance on USC holds a little water, too. I’ll take the Trojans in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the USC Trojans plus 7.5 points.