Hilltoppers vs. Gamecocks: Point Spread Prediction for Friday Night

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4 SU, ATS 6-4)  vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4 SU, ATS 5-4)
Date: 7:00 EST Friday, December 6th
Location: Burgess-Snow Field at JSU Stadium, Jacksonville, AL
TV: CBSS
Point Spread: WKU +4.5/JSU -4.5
Money Line: WKU +155/JSU  -189
Over/Under: 57.5

At 7:00 ET, Jacksonville State will host Western Kentucky in a week 15 matchup on Friday, December 6th, at Burgess-Snow Field at JSU Stadium. The game can be seen on CBSS, with the over/under line set at 57.5 points. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are -4.5-point favorites at home. Both teams enter the game with 8-4 records this season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Jacksonville State Gamecocks did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a record of 2-1. Against the spread, each team went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 39 points per contest.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Recent Form:

Western Kentucky enters Week 15 with an 8-4 record, ranked 93rd in our power rankings. They are a lock for bowl eligibility and have a 35.7% chance of winning the Conference USA title. The Hilltoppers are 3-1 at home and 3-3 on the road this season.

Against the spread, Western Kentucky is 6-4, with a 3-1 record at home and 3-3 on the road. They’ve been favored in four games, going 2-2 ATS as the favorite and 4-2 as the underdog. Their average scoring margin is +4.5 points per game.

The over/under line for this week is 57.5 points. Western Kentucky’s over/under record is 5-5, with their games averaging 48.8 points. Their average over/under line this season has been 55.7 points.

Western Kentucky’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 20th nationally with 271.8 yards per game. They are 26th in completions, averaging 22.2 per game and 33rd in attempts. Their completion rate is 66.5%, placing them 16th. The Hilltoppers are 58th in scoring, with 26.7 points per game, and are 70th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 15.

Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,665 yards, completing 67.2% of his passes, with 22 touchdowns and ten interceptions, earning a passer rating of 102. Kisean Johnson leads the receivers with 830 yards and six touchdowns on 65 catches. The run game has struggled, averaging 120.8 yards per game.

Western Kentucky’s defense is ranked 33rd nationally, allowing 22.2 points per game. In their recent game, they gave up 17 points but allowed 229 rushing yards on 43 attempts. The secondary limited Jacksonville State to 99 passing yards and forced one interception.

Opponents have averaged 210.7 rushing yards per game against Western Kentucky, while the Hilltoppers’ pass defense ranks 21st, giving up just 175.5 yards per game. They’ve faced the 13th fewest pass attempts in the country.

Away Injury Report

Jacksonville State Gamecocks Recent Form:

Jacksonville State enters Week 15 with an 8-4 record and a 5-1 mark at home. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 64.3% chance of winning the Conference USA title. The Gamecocks are ranked 76th in our power rankings heading into their matchup with Western Kentucky.

This season, Jacksonville State has been favored in seven games, going 5-2 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +8.4 points, and they are 5-4 against the spread, with a 4-2 ATS record at home.

The over/under line for this week is 57.5 points. Jacksonville State’s games have averaged 62.4 points, and their average over/under line is 58.7 points, with a +1.5 point margin against the total.

Jacksonville State’s offense has been driven by their run game, ranking 2nd in the nation with 260.3 rushing yards per game and 3rd in rushing attempts. Tre Stewart has rushed for 1,400 yards and scored 20 touchdowns this season. The Gamecocks are averaging 35.4 points per game, placing them 17th in the country.

Quarterback Tyler Huff has thrown for 2,003 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jacksonville State ranks 114th in passing yards per game. Huff has a passer rating of 90. Cam Vaughn leads the team with 529 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Jacksonville State’s defense allowed 19 points in their recent 19-17 loss to Western Kentucky, giving up 426 total yards, including 321 passing yards. They also allowed 23 first downs but held Western Kentucky to 105 rushing yards on 35 attempts.

For the season, Jacksonville State ranks 61st nationally, allowing 27 points per game. Opponents are averaging 221.7 passing yards per game and 178.6 rushing yards, with Jacksonville State facing the 102nd most rushing attempts in the country.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Western Kentucky has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, averaging 32 points per game.
• Through their last five home contests, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense has averaged 37 points per game while allowing an average of 27. Jacksonville State posted an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-3 ATS.
• Western Kentucky has done well both straight up and vs the spread as the underdog, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
• Against the spread, the Jacksonville State Gamecocks have put together of 2-3 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 4-1 straight up.

Free Pick

I see matchup advantages in favor of Jacksonville State all over the field, and getting them at -4.5 is a bargain. I could easily see the Gamecocks winning this one by double-digits. Before Friday night, I’m locking in Jacksonville State at -4.5 on the spread.

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