Hilltoppers vs. Bearkats: Week 8 College Football Picks Against the Spread

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) vs. Sam Houston Bearkats (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 8
Date/Time: Wednesday, October 16, 2024 at 7PM EDT
Where: Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, Texas
TV: ESPN2

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers come to Huntsville for a midweek Conference USA showdown with the Sam Houston State Bearkats. This should be a good one, with both teams vying for big things within the conference this season, where a win here could go a long way. A four-game winning streak that has people looking at the Bearkats a bit differently should have this home crowd buzzing, with longtime conference standout WKU coming into town. Sam Houston took care of business in their last game on the 3rd, with a 41-21 win over UTEP. The Hilltoppers, meanwhile, bounced back from a painful loss to a good Boston College team the previous week to upend the same UTEP team, 44-17, on the 10th. Let’s break it down!

Getting a Lay of the Land

WKU is more the steady aspect of this equation, a team that has gone between 8-9 wins the last handful of seasons, with a three-year bowl winning streak. Sam Houston, only in their second season in the FBS and as a member of Conference USA, is the more turbulent part of this breakdown. Last season was a coming-of-age period for K.C. Keeler’s squad, going 3-9 and manhandled early by most conference foes. For those paying close attention, though, we saw a shift begin to occur, with a strong close to the season with three wins in their last four games. Their 5-1 start this season constitutes a dramatic turnaround for a team that looks to push it forward another level in what would be a huge win this week.

Results on the surface can be misleading, and while Sam Houston gets endless kudos for flipping the script so dramatically, it might be the Hilltoppers who have been put to the test more and enter this perhaps the more battle-tempered team. After taking a week one beating from Alabama, they won three straight before getting nipped at the wire by BC after taking a 20-7 lead into the 4th quarter. They restored the order last week and are doing slightly better against UTEP than Sam Houston did. And while they’re on the road this week, this is where the Hilltoppers’ bread is buttered—in their conference, where they’ve been a dependable force for years.

Are the Bearkats for Real?

Overall, it’s not useful to nit-pick the merits of the Bearkats kicking things up a couple of notches in their last ten games, going back to last season. But when taking on a proven conference power, a more-thorough examination is required. From that perspective, maybe you can poke some holes. Their five wins are against opponents who currently sit at a combined 9-21. And that’s even including their best win over a 4-2 Texas State team. Their wins over New Mexico State and UTEP might be against the worst teams in the conference.

Even so, there is still a dangerous element to this team. Sam Houston is in really a gift-wrapped spot should they be up to the task. They enter this with a two-week break, nice, and dug into their home quarters in Huntsville. The Hilltoppers, meanwhile, enter this on the short week having played on Saturday; they’re on the road in a venue they’ve never seen, facing a home-Sam Houston throng that has reason to be fired up for this. Sam Houston quarterback Hunter Watson is a dynamic dual-threat guy, working with a top weapon in wide receiver Qua’Vez Humphreys, along with a deep and diverse supporting cast. Between Watson and backs Jay Ducker and DJ McKinney, they can really get things moving on the ground. While it has been good enough to crack the code with some weaker C-USA defenses, will it translate against a better WKU defense that can be stout, get after the quarterback, and force turnovers? We’ll see.

What Might Be Difficult for the Bearkats This Week

Caleb Veltkamp has taken over the QB duties for Western Kentucky, a strapping 6’6″ raw talent who can still let the ball get away from him on occasion. He has put together some nice games while connecting big-time with receivers Kisean Johnson and Easton Messer. While the Sam Houston State defense hasn’t always thrived against the pass this season, they at least get the benefit of knowing that is what they can focus on this week. We haven’t seen much of a run game from the Western Kentucky offense this season, and they lack the variety Sam Houston has shown on offense.

Take the Points on the Home Dog

Some things line up nicely for Sam Houston this week, with the break, WKU on the short week, this being at home, etc. It’s still asking a team that has done well to get to where they are to make another jump and show they can hang with the higher-end teams in the conference. I think they can, and they’re getting better than a FG of leeway. I see them putting their greater offensive variety to use, with Watson making some big plays, as the Bearkats cover the spread on Wednesday.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Sam Houston State Bearkats plus 3.5 points.

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