Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Oregon Ducks Week 3 Best Bet

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

College Football Week 3

Date and Time: Saturday, September 16, 2023 at 8PM EDT

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

TV: Pac-12 Network

Point Spread: HAW +37.5/ORE -37.5 (BetUS – 100% real cash bonus with code PREDICTEM)

Over/Under Total: 68

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors come to Eugene for a Saturday showdown with the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Both teams came up on the sunny side of their games last Saturday. Hawaii notched its first win of the season with a victory over the FCS squad Albany, 31-20. Oregon, meanwhile, moved to 2-0 with a nice road win on Saturday over Texas Tech, 38-30. They look for their third straight win and cover at home this week in what seems like a doable spot. Do we ride with the Ducks, or can the Rainbow Warriors come up with something in this spot?

What to Make of the Rainbow Warriors

Things haven’t been going great thus far, with former Hawaii star QB Timmy Chang in his second year as head coach, sitting on a combined 4-12 mark. They’ve been pretty tough this season thus far, having already played three games with an early start and covering the spread twice. At Vandy, they lost by a TD in a really long road trip and were halfway-respectable against another Pac-12 team in Stanford, before the win over Albany on Saturday.

The Rainbow Warriors have an experienced starter in Brayden Schager. He has already thrown for ten touchdowns, though five picks underlines some of the issues on a mistake-prone offense. Receiver Steven McBride has caught five of them and at least they have a viable route to points, even in this elevated context taking on a top Pac-12 team. Against an Oregon team that just allowed 30 to Texas Tech, maybe this offense can get some things done and make it so covering the big spread is a little tougher on Oregon.

We’re seeing a subtle level of respectability with Hawaii. Granted, Vandy and Stanford are far from iron-clad. But for them to remain at least vaguely-respectable in both games while taking care of business with Albany shows they might not be easy pickings. It’s a long road-trip, and they’re not really equipped to compete at this level of college football. But from we’ve seen so far, they might not be totally hopeless, especially when getting a gaggle of points.

Matchup Issues for the Rainbow Warriors

The decent form they’ve shown through three games notwithstanding, there are stars on this Oregon offense that could throw it into a new light. We’re seeing a situation where, basically every week, Oregon QB Bo Nix is going to put up numbers—mostly with his arm, but with his legs, as well. Add in guys like RB Mar’Keise Irving, Noah Whittington, and Troy Franklin, among others, and you’re looking at an Oregon offensive machine that possesses talent beyond anything Hawaii will see or has seen this season. If the Rainbow Warriors are giving up 20 to Albany, what’s this going to look like?

The Oregon defense is not impenetrable. Even just during head coach Dan Lanning’s brief tenure we’ve seen them allowing high point totals even in games where blowouts or at least decisive wins are forecasted. Their defense appears to play in tandem with the offense’s results. They’re palpably better in close games, but when Oregon starts to gain some separation, the opposing offenses usually are able to make a little run. When laying a lot of points, the images of an apathetic defense doesn’t foster much confidence. However, as we saw with three picks and four sacks on Saturday, the talent and playmaking on this side of the ball is immense. While it didn’t short-circuit a good Texas Tech home offense, similar type of playmaking in this spot could result in the Hawaii offense being utterly derailed.

What to Expect on Saturday

In Oregon’s last home-appearance in week one, they crushed Portland State with an 81-point output that was hard to forget. Who covers this spread in large part comes down to whether we see Oregon putting up 40-50 points or if it becomes another circus in Eugene where touchdowns come raining down. Hawaii might be a substandard Mountain West squad whose season will end up below. 500. They’re still not Portland State, and despite last week’s cupcake, have been matched pretty tough thus far and avoided getting lambasted. Granted, this isn’t Vanderbilt or Stanford, but early returns aren’t all that damning in all reality.

We also have to gauge Oregon’s willingness to push it. I’m not sure what we can realistically rely on a Hawaii defense that will really be up against it. Maybe some subtle resistance, where they’re not shining but not getting run over is their ceiling. Their playmaking surfaces here and there, but it might not be impactful in this context. But Oregon knows this is all preliminary work before the real big stuff starts happening, and after a test at Texas Tech with all that’s coming up, do they really go full-throttle this week? Or do we see some early hooks, a more-reserved approach, and an emphasis on safety? It doesn’t have to be drastic to make an impact on this spread.

Take the Points

This is neither an endorsement of Hawaii nor a condemnation of Oregon, but more of a pick from a “how the stars align” perspective. Oregon could deal Hawaii a woeful beating in this spot. Maybe the Ducks just want to get all the poison out before pouncing on a difficult conference schedule. I tend to believe that Hawaii can be respectable enough and put up enough scores on what might not be a maximally-urgent Oregon squad to limbo their way under the big number. I’ll go with the Rainbow Warriors in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors plus 37.5 points.