Guaranteed Rate Bowl Pick: Kansas vs. UNLV Predictions – Dec 26. 2023

Kansas Jayhawks (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) vs. UNLV Rebels (9-4, 10-3), 12/26/23

When: 9 pm ET Tuesday, Dec. 26

Where: Chase Field

TV: ESPN

CFB Betting Odds:

Point Spread: KU -12.5/UNLV: +12.5

Money Line: Kansas -450, Nevada Las Vegas +340

Over/Under: 64.5

The Mountain West gets a shot at the Power 5 when UNLV takes on Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl Tuesday, Dec. 26 in Phoenix.

The Jayhawks are a program on the improve under Coach Leipold, coming off their best Big 12 campaign in recent memory. Meanwhile, the Rebels are one of the more pleasant surprises in college football this season, their first under Coach Odom, playing in their first bowl in 10 years.

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College Football Bowl Season Betting Odds

The bowl season betting market opened with Kansas at -11.5 for this Guaranteed Rate Bowl, with an over/under of right around 65. Early betting action bumped that line to 12.5.

According to Sagarin’s ratings, the Jayhawks should be favored by 12.5 points.

Guaranteed Rate Bowl Betting Preview

Kansas played 8-4 this season, 5-4 in Big 12 play, to reach a bowl for the second straight season. The Jayhawks started 4-0 before taking a 40-14 loss to Texas, which later won the Big 12 championship and made the College Football Playoff. Kansas later reached 7-2, with wins over Oklahoma and Iowa State, but fell from contention in the Big 12 with back-to-back close losses to Texas Tech and Kansas State. The Jayhawks then finished their regular season on a solid note, winning at Cincinnati 49-16 back on Nov. 25.

We liked Kansas heading into this season, with 17 starters back from a team that played 6-7 last year. We bet on the Jayhawks early for a win against Illinois, then lost with them against Texas and Oklahoma State. But we caught ‘em on the bounce-back the next week against Oklahoma and won with them the last week against Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, the Rebels, expected to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West this season, instead won nine games overall, went 6-2 in conference play, and reached the MWC championship game. So UNLV is back in a bowl for the first time since 2013.

The Rebs started 6-1 this season, with a 35-7 loss at Big 10 champion and CFP qualifier Michigan, which wasn’t a crime. And they picked up a Power 5 victory over Vanderbilt of the SEC. UNLV then lost a tough one at Fresno State, then won three straight, two over bowl qualifiers Wyoming and Air Force, before losing their season finale to San Jose State. But the Rebels won a tie-breaker to reach the MWC title game, where they got out-played and lost to Boise State 44-20.

UNLV certainly wasn’t expected to do much this season, with 13 starters back from a team that played 5-7 last year. Plus, they were playing against the learning curve under the new coaching regime. So the Rebs played way above expectations nearly all season, as their 10-3 mark ATS attests.

We backed the Rebels earlier this season at +10 against Fresno State and they covered, losing only 31-24. Then we lost when we faded UNLV against Wyoming – the Rebs won that game 34-14 at -3.

These two teams played one common opponent this season; 2-10 Nevada. Back in September Kansas got in a real scrap with the Wolf Pack out in Reno, won 31-24 but came nowhere close to covering at -28. A month later UNLV won at Nevada 45-27 and covered easily at -7.5.

Also, both these teams played one opponent this season that made the CFP; the Rebs, as mentioned, lost by four touchdowns at Michigan while the Jayhawks lost by four touchdowns at Texas.

College Football Betting Trends

The Mountain West played 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS against the Big 12 this season.

Totals Report

The Overs are 6-5-1 in Jayhawks games this season, which are averaging 59 total points.

The Overs are 8-4 in Rebels games, which are averaging 61 points.

Free Guaranteed Rate Bowl Betting Pick

Kansas is just the better team in this bowl and should win this game outright. However, the line in this game seems a bit much. UNLV played above expectations nearly all season long, then gave a bad performance in the MWC championship game. We expect a bounce-back effort for this bowl. Also, these teams’ performances against common/similar foes were close. Also, double-digit dogs played 5-2 ATS in bowls last season, which might say something about the motivation involved in games like this. We won’t call for the outright upset but we’ll take the Rebs plus the points.