Georgia vs. Texas: SEC Championship ATS Prediction

No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs (10-2 SU, 3-9 ATS) vs. No. 2 Texas Longhorns (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 15
Date/Time: Saturday, December 7th, 2024, 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA.
TV: ABC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: UGA +2.5/TEX -2.5
Moneyline: UGA +115/TEX -135
Total: 49.5

Last week, the Georgia Bulldogs survived an 8 overtime thriller in a 44-42 victory over rival Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs were already slated for an SEC Championship Game appearance, but the avoided loss means that Georgia will surely make the College Football Playoffs even if they fail to capture the automatic bid through this week’s conference championship. However, the Bulldogs are not looking for a consolation prize. In fact, they handed the Texas Longhorns their only defeat of the season earlier this year in a convincing 30-15 victory. On Saturday, no. 7 Georgia and no. 2 Texas collide for a rematch with SEC Championship stakes on the line.

Since the loss to Georgia earlier this season, the Longhorns have compiled five straight victories, including a 17-7 victory last week over no. 20 Texas A&M. The Longhorns now have the opportunity to accomplish an unprecedented feat by winning the SEC Championship in their first year in the conference. However as strong as Texas has been from a season perspective, the Longhorns still have concerns on the offensive side of the football where inconsistency and turnovers have been too common. If the Longhorns can get the offense rolling, they will likely be one of the toughest outs in the country for the remainder of the season.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

When the Bulldogs topped the Longhorns back in mid-October, the difference in the 30-15 outcome was mainly attributed to the Georgia defense who held Texas to just 259 total yards and forced four turnovers. The Bulldogs had this success on the defensive side of the football despite the fact Georgia QB Carson Beck tossed three turnovers in one of his worst performances of the season against a tough Texas defense. Needless to say, this rematch will once again be highlighted by the strength of both defenses and likely the team that avoids the most turnovers.

In reality, I think the match-up that will decide the outcome in this game will be the Georgia defensive front against the Texas offensive line. In the first meeting, Georgia’s defensive front dominated with consistent pressure and was able to stymie the Longhorns’ rushing attack. If Georgia is able to replicate that dominance along the line of scrimmage, the Texas offense is going to struggle. While many expect that to be the path to another Georgia victory, I personally do not see that scenario playing out. The Longhorns’ offensive front has been playing much better, and RB Quintrevion Wisner has rushed for a minimum of 150 yards over the last two games. If the Longhorns can have success on the ground, I think that will open up a lot more opportunities in this rematch, and that is exactly what I expect to happen.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Trends

• Georgia is 2-9 ATS in the last 11 games.
• Georgia is 7-1 SU in the last eight games.
• Georgia is 17-3 SU in the last 20 games against SEC opponents.
• Georgia is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine games as the betting underdog.
• Texas is 2-4 ATS in the last six games.
• Texas has hit the “under” in 7 of the last eight games.
• Texas is 8-1 SU in the last nine games against SEC opponents.
• Texas has hit the “under” in 4 of the last five games as the betting favorite.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Prediction

As I alluded to above, I believe Texas is playing much better on the offensive front, and I believe their defense will continue to force turnovers. I do not trust QB Carson Beck in these high-pressure situations, and I believe the Longhorns will get revenge this time around!

Jay’s Pick: Take Texas -2.5

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