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Georgia vs. LSU Pick Against The Spread

by | Last updated Oct 11, 2018 | cfb

LSU Tigers

Georgia Bulldogs (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday October 13th, 2018. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, L.A.
TV: CBS
By: Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread:UGA -7/LSU +7
Over/Under Total: 50.5

One of the biggest games in the SEC this weekend will take place in Death Valley when the no. 13 LSU Tigers host the undefeated 2nd ranked Georgia Bulldogs. The Tigers suffered their first loss of the season last week on the road at Florida and have an extremely tough schedule in the coming weeks with Georgia, Mississippi State, and Alabama on the near horizon. Despite last week’s loss, the Tigers still have a few quality wins and could remain in the hunt for the SEC Championship if they could find a way to deliver the upset over the Bulldogs.

I personally think the odds are stacked against LSU this weekend from a matchup standpoint. The Bulldogs have looked extremely strong this year in SEC play beating the likes of South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt with ease. Obviously the talent level that the Tigers possess is greater than any of those programs but LSU also has some obvious holes in their football team right now. Meanwhile, Georgia may just be the 2nd best team in the country behind Alabama. Needless to say, LSU will have to play a tremendous game and rebound from some of the exploited weaknesses in order to have a shot.

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Tigers struggles continue at quarterback

I have jokingly stated that LSU is cursed at the quarterback position but I am starting to believe in the paranormal sentiment. For a program to have as much talent on a yearly basis, it is mind boggling that LSU continues to have so much trouble each season at the quarterback. The latest saga in the LSU troubles behind center include junior quarterback Joe Burrow who has maintained a measly 53% completion percentage on the season. In last week’s loss to Florida, Burrow completed just 19 of 34 passing for 191 yards with 2 interceptions to cap off a pathetic performance from the offense.

Before anyone accuses me of picking on Burrow for having a bad game, please realize that this is a glaring problem that has surrounded LSU for years going back well into the early years of the Les Miles era. Though some weekends it may not seem like a problem because LSU’s rushing success and defense has overshadowed the quarterback play against inferior opponents. Still last week’s performance was just another ideal scenario that proved that LSU cannot move the football when they are forced into passing situations. Each time this LSU offense falls behind, they are most vulnerable at the quarterback position and that is usually when these issues are exploited. Just consider Georgia’s offensive prowess this season, LSU is going to be in serious trouble if they cannot move the football through the air or fight back if they fall behind.

Bulldogs will win the matchup on offense

LSU has one of the most talented defenses in the SEC especially in the secondary. However, this defense was shredded on the ground last week by a Florida offense that rushed for over 200 yards. I was eager to see how LSU’s rushing defense held up against Florida because they have yet to face a heavy rushing attack. I know you could argue that they played against Auburn well which is historically a strong rushing attack but I think we are starting to see Auburn is not the team we expected. This week Georgia will bring one of the most balanced offenses in the SEC straight at this LSU defense and I expect it to win the matchup.

Running backs Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift are excellent rushing threats that will provide different challenges to this LSU defense. Furthermore, quarterback Jake Fromm has been excellent competing over 72% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and 2 picks. I know LSU’s defense is strongest against the pass but I don’t think it will matter if Georgia establishes the run. Because once that happens, the Bulldogs will pick their poison to keep this defense on its heels. Georgia has one of the most efficient and flawless offenses in the SEC; they will execute and win this battle.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Georgia -7

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