Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina Analysis, Trends, Spread Pick

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (4-6 SU, ATS 4-6-0) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-1 SU, ATS 5-3-1)

Date: Saturday, November 19th

Location: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: Yellow Jackets +20.5/Tar Heels -20.5 (Make UNC a -0.5 favorite or GT a +40.5 underdog by inserting either into a massive 20 point college football teaser at Wagerweb!)

Money Line: Yellow Jackets +712/Tar Heels -1268

Over/Under: 63.5

RECENT FORM

The Yellow Jackets are coming into the game with a 3-4 record in Atlantic Coast play. Their overall record is 4-6. This season, the Yellow Jackets have been favored in 3 games while posting an ATS mark of 4-6-0. Their average over-under betting line is 51.7 leading to an over-under record of 3-6-1.

The Yellow Jackets head into the game coming off a 35-14 loss vs. Miami. With the defeat, Georgia Tech also added an ATS loss to their resume. The team finished the game by throwing two touchdown passes. Overall, the Yellow Jackets had 234 passing yards on a completion percentage of 55.8%. In the rushing game, the Yellow Jackets did not find the endzone, finishing with a total of 129 yards on the ground.

Quarterback Jeff Sims comes in the game having completed 110 of 188 passes for a passer rating of 77.77. Overall, he has a total of 1115 passing yards. Nate McCollum leads the team’s receiving corps with 54 catches for a total of 590 yards. The Yellow Jackets have turned to running back Hassan Hall a total of 101 times for a total of 473 rushing yards.

This year, Tar Heels have an overall record of 9-1. In addition, they have also played well on the Atlantic Coast, going 6-0. This season, the Tar Heels have been favored in 6 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-3-1. Their average over-under betting line is 57.6 leading to an over-under record of 4-5-0.

In their previous game, the Tar Heels picked up a 36-34 home win over Wake Forest. This was an impressive victory as they were also the 4.5-point underdogs. In the win, North Carolina completed 63.3 of their 49 passes, 3 of which resulted in touchdowns. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 136 yards on the ground.

Heading into the matchup, Drake Maye has an overall passer rating of 128.15 on a total of 3412 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 34 touchdowns and three interceptions. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Josh Downs, who has caught 74 passes for a total of 847 yards. In the run game, Omarion Hampton has accumulated 358 yards on 78 attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

Against the spread, the Yellow Jackets have gone 4-6-0 over their last ten games. Straight up, they have a record of 4-6-0. The team’s average scoring differential was -11.6, as they averaged 17.1 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 28.7 points. Their last ten over-under record is 3-6-1.

Through their last five road contests, the Yellow Jackets’ offense has averaged 16.0 points per game while allowing an average of 34.2. Georgia Tech posted an overall record of 2-3-0 while going 3-2-0 ATS.

North Carolina has gone 9-1-0 over their last ten contests, including posting an ATS record of 5-4-1. Their last ten scoring differential sits at +8.8, as they averaged 40.1 points per game while allowing 31.3. The over-under record in these games was 5-5-0.

In their last five home games, North Carolina has averaged 41.0 points per game while allowing 23.4. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1-0 while going 2-3-0.

More Picks: Tennessee at South Carolina Odds & Predictions

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Yellow Jackets will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 125th in the NCAA in points scored. This week could be an opportunity for an above-average performance as the North Carolina defense that is allowing an average of 31.3 points per game has had its problems getting off the field on third down.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Georgia Tech offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a North Carolina defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Tar Heels are just 149th in sacks per game.

The Georgia Tech offense is averaging just 138.4 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 34.9 rush attempts per game (85th). This week, the Yellow Jackets will be facing a North Carolina defense ranked 153rd in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 135.71 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

So far, the Tar Heels are averaging 40.1 points per game on offense, which is good for 10th most in college football. They should add to these numbers against a Georgia Tech defense that is 103rd in points allowed.

So far, the North Carolina offense is averaging just 163.9 yards per game on the ground. This production has come on an average of 36.6 rush attempts per game (65th). The Tar Heels will be facing a Georgia Tech defense that is ranked 150th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 174.0 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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