Georgia State Panthers vs. Georgia Southern Eagles Pick – Week 9

Georgia State Panthers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)

College Football Week 9

Date and Time: Thursday, October 26, 2023, at 7:30 PM EDT

Where: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, Georgia

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: GSU +2.5/GASO -2.5 (Bovada)

Money Line: GSU +110, GASO -130

Over/Under Total: 62

The Georgia State Panthers battle the Georgia Southern Eagles on Thursday in Sun Belt Conference action from Statesboro. These are some of the better teams in the conference, each with a chance to make some things happen. Georgia Southern is coming off a nice 38-28 win over Louisiana-Monroe last week, making up for a bad loss the prior week to conference frontrunner James Madison. Georgia State, meanwhile, beat Louisiana-Monroe last week, 20-17, to move to 6-1, as they now take to the road for a tough conference spot. Who can help us get our college football betting weekend off to a fast start?

Getting Our Bearings

This Thursday night Sun Belt face-off might be a little off the radar for some folks. These teams have a similar trajectory, other than Georgia Southern going into the Big Ten and taking a loss to Wisconsin. With Georgia Southern losing to James Madison and Georgia State falling to Troy, they’ve each lost to good opposition within their conference, while also establishing themselves as contenders, with the winner of this game notching a big nugget within the Sun Belt’s east division.

Not to oversimplify the equation, as there are wrinkles within, but Georgia Southern is an offense-heavy team. There is some balance with nice contributions from the run-game, but much of the offense’s success is hinged on QB Davis Brin and his main aerial weaponry in receivers Khaleb Hood and Derwin Burgess, Jr. The Panthers, meanwhile, also rely on offense and have been fairly consistent thus far, last week’s 20-point output notwithstanding. While QB Darren Grainger has a nice arm and works well with a good one-two punch at wide receiver with Robert Lewis and Tailique Williams, they are a little less aerial in their offensive outlook, relying heavily on running back Marcus Carroll and the runs of Grainger, who is quite effective with his feet.

Which Defense Can Step Up this Week?

We see each team putting up 40 points on a regular basis, making defense a key part of this equation. In recent pairings with these teams and even this season overall, it is the Panthers who are flashing a little more fire on this side of the ball. They’ve been pretty stout within the conference this season. They can be disruptive, as well, with the pass-rush coming from different sources and a secondary that can be rigid, while having some ball-hawk appeal.

Conversely, we see the Georgia Southern defense allowing a lot to opponents. Some of those opponents being low-end conference fodder doesn’t bode well for stepping into the higher reaches of the Sun Belt once again. Last time, we saw them give up 41 points to JMU, following it up with a less-than-sterling showing last week against a struggling UL Monroe. They also gave up a lot to UAB, Wisconsin, which is more forgivable, and a so-so Coastal Carolina bunch.

The Issue of Balance

Not that it can’t manifest, as Georgia Southern is a capable team and they are at home, but the Eagles need to see Davis Brin and this offense fire in a big way and hope to out-leg the Panthers to the finish line. It’s really not an altogether faulty premise. They have a lot of life on that side of the ball, with good skill-players throughout the unit. But their route is still more aerially-based. Georgia State, on the other hand, can get there through the air, on the ground, and with some big contributions on the other side of the ball.

It’s not right to sell the Georgia Southern “D” completely short. With nine picks and a couple of scores already, their defense can make some big plays, especially in the secondary. They can get after the QB with Isaac Walker leading the way. But they are not as stout overall and hardly bankable against the better offenses they face. Again, they could just ride a home offense to victory. But Georgia State is built to withstand some things not going their way. Georgia Southern is going to be in a major pinch in the event that Brin struggles against this opportunistic Panthers’ defense.

In games like this, who makes the fewer mistakes is usually in a good spot. Brin seemed to get the INT bug under control in ’22 after throwing 16 the year prior, but we’re already up to 11 this season, only two less than Georgia State’s Grainger has thrown in nearly three years. Grainger and this Georgia State offense might not have the same big-play ability as Brin and the Eagles offense, but they’re also less likely to undermine the whole operation with a stream of miscues. Sometimes in spots like this, there’s something to be said for competence and balance. And in that vein, you’d tend to give the nod to the Panthers.

Take the Road Dog

The Panthers are hardly above reproach and a big offensive showing from the Eagles could be enough. But they also need a lot of things to not surface, including a defense that can bottom-out some and turnovers. Georgia State has more the look of a team that could catch James Madison and give them a go, while we already saw Georgia Southern in that context and it wasn’t too good. It’s a tricky matchup, but when you think one team is a small cut above, you shouldn’t try too hard to talk yourself out of it. I’m going with Georgia State in this one.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Georgia State Panthers plus 2.5 points.