Georgia State Panthers vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Predictions

Georgia State Panthers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

College Football Week 4

Date and Time: Thursday, September 21, 2023 at 7:30PM EDT

Where: Brooks Stadium, Conway, South Carolina

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: GSU +6.5/CCU -6.5 (Bovada – Home of the most amazing live betting platform on the planet! They’ll give you a 50-75% bonus too!)

Money Line: GSU +200, CCU -240

Over/Under Total: 63

The Georgia State Panthers come to Conway for a Thursday night Sun Belt Conference showdown against the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Both teams have been pretty good this season, going a combined 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread. Last week, Georgia State won their third straight to start the season, beating Charlotte, 41-25. It would really boost their early-season cause to pin a loss on one of the conference’s better teams over the last several years. It won’t be easy against a Coastal Carolina bunch that continues to put that week one loss to UCLA behind them, stomping Duquesne last week, 66-7. Who will get the upper hand this week at Brooks Stadium?

Getting a Lay of the Land

Since joining the FBS, these teams have some shared history, locking horns annually since the Chanticleers came into the Sun Belt in 2017. Lately, Coastal Carolina has been winning in this matchup more often, but we’ve seen some close games and even some Georgia St. wins over the years, despite Coastal Carolina generally being the better overall team—faring well in conference and even getting nationally-ranked. So, we have a Georgia State team that usually puts up a decent fight in this spot, starting the season 3-0, so there is ample hope for Panthers’ backers in this game.

Still, coming off one of Georgia State coach Shawn Elliott’s worst seasons last year at 4-8, some temperance is in order, with Georgia State beating Rhode Island, UConn, and Charlotte. Their offense looks pretty good, but perhaps the level of the opponent masked some of the inadequacies on the other side of the ball. After allowing 35 to Rhode Island and 25 to Charlotte, they are now coming in to face a Coastal Carolina team that generally pushes this “D” to its limits and likely will do so again in this spot.

Hazards for Georgia State

On Saturday, we saw both some of the good and bad from Georgia State. They jetted out to a 31-10 lead, riding the hot hand of QB Darren Grainger, who threw for 461 yards on 26-of-32 passing. But just as it looked to be a done deal, the Panthers’ defense melted and, within a few blinks of the eye, let Charlotte climb back in there within nine points. They got it together and cruised to the finish line a winner, but those types of lackadaisical sequences on defense in a spot like this could really be costly. Still, it’s nice to see the Panthers tapping into a high-octane aerial offense, with Grainger connecting with Robert Lewis for 220 yards and two TDs, while also seeing Tailique Williams going off for 129 yards and a crucial second-half TD.

Other than the loss to UCLA, a context in which a Sun Belt team is not built to thrive, we’ve seen the CCU offense in good working order. Fourth-year starter QB Grayson McCall has bounced back with two good games. He works with a deep rotation of different backs, and this offense has a lot of balance to wield on a still-unproven defense like Georgia State’s. In McCall’s three previous meetings with Georgia State (2-1), the offense has never been the problem.

Matchup Edges for Coastal Carolina

Grainger and this Georgia State offense aren’t particularly mistake-prone. Grainger has been a steady hand, as he is now in his third season as a starter since transferring from Furman. Still, things can look a little different when taking on this attacking and game-changing Coastal Carolina defense. Even against UCLA, Coastal Carolina got three interceptions and have kept it rolling ever since. Safety Clayton Isbell already has three picks, with linebacker JT Killen and S Tobias Fletcher adding defensive TDs, Fletcher’s being a 100-yard INT return for a touchdown. At home, with the extra energy of a conference opener in their midst, I’d expect some high energy on this side of the ball for a defense that comes into this with a lot of momentum.

Coastal Carolina uses a different approach. Georgia State more or less follows the script, playing a core of guys and rolling it out there and seeing what happens. Coastal Carolina is constantly shuffling the backfield, as backs are brought in with fresh legs, leading to a very energetic run-game that usually takes over in the second half against their fatigued opponents. And while there might be slightly more clarity in their pass-catching corps, with Sam Pinckney and Jared Brown their two clear lead receivers, a dozen players have hauled in multiple receptions already through three games this season, also giving them a ton of aerial variety. It helps them come off the short week, with no one player ever really driven in the ground. Can a Georgia State defense that has already looked dodgy and gotten off the hook by their own offense rolling against overmatched FCS foes handle a diverse and fresh-legged Chanticleers’ offense?

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

This isn’t an easy stance to take against a Panthers team that looks good to start the season. They generally rise to the occasion of taking on the typically-better Chanticleers, and they are certainly dangerous with Darren Grainger and a group of receivers who can go off on a given day. But Coastal Carolina losing only 27-13 on the road to the Bruins, and last week’s performance suggests they still might be a cut above, and their variety and balance should be enough to get some separation from the Panthers in the second half. I’ll take Coastal Carolina.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus 6.5 points.