Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Week 9 Predictions: Can the Monarchs Stay Hot?

Georgia Southern Eagles (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) vs. Old Dominion Monarchs (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 9

Date/Time: Thursday, October 24, 2024 at 7PM EDT

Where: S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, Virginia

TV: ESPN

The Georgia Southern Eagles battle the Old Dominion Monarchs on Thursday in Sun Belt Conference action from Norfolk. Looking at the Sun Belt Conference East standings, we see these two teams at the top, with the Eagles leading the way at 5-2 with a 3-0 conference mark, though the Monarchs could pass them with a win this week. So, this could have big ramifications for these two contending teams in this conference. Both teams will be entering this on the short week, having last played this past Saturday. Old Dominion beat Texas State 24-14. Winning their second in a row after a concerning 1-4 start to the season. Georgia Southern, meanwhile, won their third game in a row, beating James Madison, 28-14. What’s the right move in this game?

The Quality of Georgia Southern

Any notions of Georgia Southern being among the best of this division are well-founded. With wins over James Madison last week and Marshall the week before that, the Eagles have already shown they can handle the better teams in their division, looking to add another scalp this week with the Monarchs. Even their season-opening loss to Boise State showed their quality with a 56-45 loss, with the Eagles throwing up 460 yards of offense.

For a Sun Belt team, Georgia Southern has some pretty compelling talent, and we’ve seen quarterback JC French really ascend to the starting role, throwing for 1531 yards and ten TDs. Jalen White and OJ Arnold (questionable) are a nice one-two punch out of the backfield. But aerially is where their bread is really buttered, led by Derwin Burgess, Jr., Dalen Cobb, Josh Dallas, LV Bunkley-Shelton, and tight end Tyler Fromm. They have a lot of weapons. The same can be said for the other side of the ball, and if you take out games where they were out of their element against Boise and Ole Miss, where their defense was run over in spots, they’ve allowed an average of less than 18 points a game.

Signs of Life from Old Dominion

A few weeks ago, this matchup would have a different light on it, with Old Dominion sitting at 1-4. And while their win over Georgia State wasn’t that impressive with the Panthers pretty down this season, their double-digit points win over Texas State commands some begrudging respect. QB Colton Joseph has really ratcheted up his form, and the freshman could be coming more into his own after a coming-of-age period with some growing pains to start the season. We’ve seen a bit more aerial alacrity, along with some big rushing performances the last two weeks from the kid, running for 210 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games, both of which they won. Some things seem to shake out for a better second half of the season for the Monarchs.

Joseph can lean on running back Aaron Young, a useful weapon out of the backfield. He looks to be working better with his targets, guys like talented WR Isiah Page and productive tight end Pat Conroy. Their defense has started cranking up the pass rush in recent weeks better, and with nine picks on the season, we see a ball-hawk secondary with playmakers like CB Angelo Rankin, Jr. and safety Jahron Manning. Last week, we saw Georgia Southern quarterback JC French throw three picks, and a repeat of that this week could spell doom for the Eagles’ offense.

Food for Thought

A bad start with some new pieces in tow for Old Dominion should maybe be taken with a grain of salt. They’re going to largely be judged by how they fare within this conference, and by that measure, they’ve been pretty good—a one-score loss to Coastal Carolina notwithstanding. They were at home last week, catching this important patch of conference games at a good time, and at home again on Thursday. They see things coming together a little at the quarterback position, which has given rise to an increased energy team-wide.

Still, this is a jump-up in class. With the things Georgia Southern can do on both sides of the ball, the resistance-levels go up a notch this week for the Monarchs. And after watching one team after the next struggling to create much offensive rhythm against this Eagles’ defense, can we reasonably project that the modest gains we’ve seen from the Monarchs and Colton Joseph will translate in this elevated conference context? Or do we start seeing some of the same things that led to their 1-4 start? If they start reverting to what we had been seeing with their offensive meandering and a defense that looks like it’s out there just taking up space, this is not the conference opponent you want to be facing.

Take the Points

Despite a 1-4 start, Old Dominion is a rightful contender in this division, and their enhanced play shown over the last two weeks in conference play does count for a lot. And I think that’s amply accommodated for with the spread, where the Monarchs are laying 2.5 as of press time. I don’t question whether the Monarchs can be a handful in this high-stakes spot at home, but in a toss-up type game where I suspect Georgia Southern might be a tad better, it’s hard not to take the points. I’m going with Georgia Southern.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Georgia Southern Eagles plus 2.5 points.

It’s a great day to learn about the benefits of reduced vig! It’ll change the way you bet on games forever!