Georgia Southern vs Georgia State: Free Pick ATS

Georgia Southern Eagles (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Georgia State Panthers (2-1, 1-2), 9/28/24

NCAA Football Week 5

When: 3:30 pm ET Saturday, Sept. 28

Where: Center Parc Stadium

TV: ESPNU

Sun Belt in-state rivals clash when Georgia State and Georgia Southern open their conference slates Saturday afternoon in Atlanta.

The Eagles hope to contend in the SBC this season, their third under Coach Helton. The Panthers, on the other hand, are expected to struggle a bit this season, their first under Coach McGee.

And yet Georgia State is lined as the betting favorite for this contest.

The Line

The CFB Week 5 betting market opened this game at right around a pick ‘em, with an O/U of 56. Early betting action then steamed Georgia State to -3.5 and goosed that total to 59.

Georgia Southern Betting Preview

The Eagles are 2-2 on the season after falling at Ole Miss last Saturday 52-13. Georgia Southern, as a 35-point dog, gave up the first 17 points of the game and trailed 24-7 at the half. The Eagles still had the spread covered through three quarters at 38-10 but couldn’t quite hold on against one of the best teams in the country.

Georgia Southern got out-gained by the Rebels 607-195.

The Eagles opened this season with a 56-45 loss to Boise State but they actually led that game 37-36 early in the fourth quarter and hung on to cover at +13. Georgia Southern then won at Nevada 20-17 even though they got out-gained by over 200 yards. The Eagles then defeated South Carolina State (FCS) 42-14, covering at -27.

Georgia Southern returned 13 starters this season from a team that played 6-7 last season. “Experts” expect the Eagles to finish second to fourth in the SBC East this season, and they’re catching about +1800 to win the conference championship.

Georgia State Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Panthers are 2-1 on the season after beating Vanderbilt of the SEC two weeks ago 36-32. Georgia State then had last week off.

The Panthers, catching eight points as home dogs against the Commodores, led that game nearly the entire way, then fell down 32-29 with just over a minute to go. But Georgia State regrouped and drove 75 yards in seven plays to a game-winning touchdown.

The Panthers also cashed in at +275 on the college football betting money line.

Georgia State out-gained Vandy 426-380.

The Panthers opened this season with a 35-12 loss at Georgia Tech, missing ATS at +20. Georgia State then needed a late touchdown to beat Chattanooga (FCS) 24-21 and came up short ATS at -10.

The Panthers only returned ten starters this season from a team that played 7-6 last season. They’re also playing for a new head coach with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. “Experts” are picking Georgia State to finish last in the SBC East and they’re catching about +4500 to win the conference title.

Georgia Southern-Georgia State Recent History

The Panthers beat the Eagles six of eight times from 2015-22, but last year, Georgia Southern beat Georgia State 44-27 in Statesboro.

That game played over a total of 63.

College Football Betting Trends

• The home team is 6-2, both SU and ATS, over the last eight games in this series.

Totals Report

• Totals are split 2-2 in Eagles games this season, averaging 65 total points.
• Unders are 2-1 in Panthers games, which are averaging 53 points.
• Overs are 3-1 over the last four meetings in this series, which averaged 59 points.

Free College Football Pick

By the numbers Georgia State owns several statistical advantages but we’re thinking a lot of that has to do with the schedule these teams have played. Our guess is by the end of the season Georgia Southern places higher in the SBC standings than the Panthers. Also, the Eagles won this match-up last year, and they’re probably better now than they were then. The line on this game indicates it would be close to a pick ‘em on a neutral field; the hook just entices us a little more. We like Georgia Southern plus the points.