Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers Pick 10/5/19

Georgia Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

When: Saturday, October 5th, 2019 – 7:00 PM ET

Where: Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, TN

TV: SEC NETWORK

Point Spread: DAWGS -25 / TENN +25 (BetOnline)
Total: 51.5

Power Ratings: Tennessee +27

Takeaways From Week Five

The Bulldogs had a bye in Week Five but previous to this put together perhaps one of the most impressive wins of the young season when it hosted and defeated a then No. 7-ranked Notre Dame in Athens by a score of 23-17. The game was one of national attention in a prime-time spot and thus was also subjected to a lot of betting action. Droves of money piled in on the Bulldog Nation which saw the Dawgs close as 15.5-point chalk and failed to produce a cover. UGA remains the No. 3 team in the polls.

The Volunteers like their rivals enter into this game on a bye, but the previous match would be one that it would like to forget. Closing as a 12.5-point road underdog, Tennessee was nowhere near close to covering when it made a trip down to the infamous Swamp of Gainesville when it faced off with another team; it’s not a huge fan of, the Florida Gators. The Orange and Blue would cruise past the Power T by a score of 34-3.

How the Public is Betting The Georgia-Tennessee Game

At the moment, 74% of the consensus fancy the Dawgs here laying the points to the hosts Tennessee. This market opened with UGA spotting 24 points to the Vols, but the line quickly jumped by a point to where it presently rests due to early action on the Red and Black.

The Historicals

Georgia and Tennessee have quite an intimate rivalry, and thus these games have been historically close. The Dawgs have won the last two meetings between these two SEC East rivals. Last year, Georgia hosted Tennessee in Athens and dispatched the Volunteers by a score of 38-12 but unfortunately did not produce a cover as it closed a 30.5-point favorite.

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Injury Concerns

Heading into this game, the biggest concern for either team in terms of injuries would have to rest with the Bulldogs. Defensive Backs Tyson Campbell, Eric Stokes, and DJ Daniel remain a question mark heading into this divisional rivalry game. Coach Kirby Smart remains optimistic that all three could be suiting up for this contest, but should they be unavailable, Tyrique McGee and Divaad Wilson will get the start in their place, both of which are seasoned veterans for the Bulldog Nation.

Betting Trends

Based on trends, one would think that alone would steer the public toward Tennessee. After all, the Dawgs are just 2-5 ATS in the previous seven meetings between these two sides. Moreover, the Underdog has covered in six of the last seven contests as well.

Why We Like The Dawgs To Cover

There has been a lot of “bulletin board material” and animated conjecture produced by the Volunteer fan base and its players in the pre-season, directed towards the Bulldogs. Moreover, there was a point where many analysts predicted Tennessee to be a potential trap game where the Dawgs stub their toe. However, all this will do is, in fact, motivate the Georgia players, coaches, and faithful to not take anything for granted. Lest we also forget that the last time the Dawgs ventured up to Knoxville, they handed Tennessee its worst home loss in over 100 years when they shut the door on the Vols by a score of 41-0. All of these motivational and emotional intangibles make the Dawgs a savory choice here.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -25

The Bulldogs are a team that loves to run the ball down their opponents’ throat. The Red and Black currently bode the nation’s 12th best rushing attack, averaging 253.5 rushing yards per game. Georgia doesn’t just have one lead back either; the Dawgs have DeAndre Swift, and he has a few friends along-side him that can all test the integrity of this Volunteer defense which gives up 149.8 yards on the ground per game (66th in the FBS); their names are Brian Herrien, Zamir White, James Cook, and Kenny McIntosh. On the flip-side, Georgia’s defense is evidently one of the best in the country as they have only allowed two touchdowns against, to any opponent who started a drive outside of the red-zone. Given the fact Tennessee’s offense sits 103rd in the country in total yardage (355.2 per game), a few explosive plays by the Dawgs could easily put this game out of reach early and for these reasons combined with motivation, I cannot see why the Dawgs do not run through Knoxville and serve up a slice of humble pie to the Volunteers.