Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Pick 11/2/19

Georgia Bulldogs (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS)
When: Saturday, November 2nd, 2019 – 3:30 PM ET
Where: EverBank Field – Jacksonville, FL
TV: CBS

Point Spread: UGA -4 / UF +4 (WagerWeb)
Total: 48

Takeaways From Week Nine

The Bulldogs enter into this game off a bye. Georgia played hosted to divisional adversary Kentucky two weeks ago in Athens when the Dawgs took the field in torrential rain to face off with Big Blue. Due to the conditions, the offense was kept to a minimum until the Bulldogs were able to put together an explosive second-half performance behind their bell-cow DeAndre Swift. The Dawgs would shut the Wildcats out 21-0 but fail to cover a 23.5-point line while doing so.

The Gators like their rivals enter into this game on a bye. Florida was last in action two weeks ago against the only team that defeated Georgia this season: the South Carolina Gamecocks. Closing on the road as a 3.5-point favorite, the Orange and Blue won and covered in a 38-27 win in Columbia.

How the Public is Betting The Georgia-Florida Game

At the moment, 54% of the general consensus like the Gators taking back the points. Despite this, the market opened with UGA spotting 3.5 points to Florida, followed by the line quickly jumping by a half-point to its present position due to early action on the Red and Black.

The Historicals

Georgia and Florida are two teams that love to hate each other. When the two teams met last year, the contest was a hard-fought bout until the Dawgs wore down their arch-nemesis and pulled away in the fourth quarter. The final tally was 36-17 UGA enabling the Bulldogs to cover easily as a seven-point favorite.

Injury Concerns

Bulldogs Senior Running Back Brian Herrien is listed as questionable as he deals with back spasms heading into the Cocktail Party. Herrien is an emotional leader for this Bulldog bunch, and he serves as a change-of-pace back to stand-out talent DeAndre Swift. Should Herrien be unavailable, the Dawgs have plenty of quality behind him in Zamir White and James Cook, who will see enhanced carries as a result. Georgia’s number-one wide-out Laurence Cager is listed as doubtful as he battles rib and shoulder injuries.

Betting Trends

A trend that favors the Bulldogs is the narrative that the favorite has covered successfully in the last four meetings between these two bitter rivals. However, Florida has been a cash cow in SEC play going 4-0 ATS in their last four conference matches.

Why We Like The Dawgs To Cover

There has been a lot of “bulletin board material” that has been provided by Gator coaches, players, and fans that dates back to long before the season ever got started. There is little doubt that the trash talk that came from Gainesville toward Georgia throughout 2019 has had these Dawgs licking their chops all year in anticipation for this match-up. The Bulldog Nation will be coming into this game not just to win but to send the Gator Nation a message. After all, Coach Kirby Smart said it best “The Dawgs play with their helmet, not their mouthpiece.” However, media hyperbole has painted an opposing picture in the build-up to this contest. The discussion heading into this game has been the superb play of Florida complemented by the let-down Georgia suffered against South Carolina two weeks ago in Athens. These two narratives portray the Gators as the team that should be the chalk and puts the Dawgs in position to be a short-sold favorite. In scenarios such as those, there is often value to be found.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Georgia -4

The Bulldogs opened at a notoriously favorite-friendly number (3.5), which works against all the media build-up of their arch-rivals. Given the fact this game is expected to take on a defensive connotation, a field goal settling the dispute seems like a very plausible scenario. With respect to how elevated Florida’s stock is, that field goal makes the Gators look like an easy play here. However, the Bulldogs will do what they have always done when they want to win football games: run the football and let their defense bully their opponents. While this often results in the Dawgs getting off to a slow start and perhaps playing down to their competition, the body blows pay off in the third and fourth quarters when their opposition cannot catch its breath. That is when the Bulldogs open things up, and this is what can happen again to the Florida Gators. I expect Georgia to offer up its best performance of the year as it will endeavor to make an example out of their rivals.