Gator Bowl Pick – Duke vs. Ole Miss

Duke vs Mississippi

Lane Kiffin and Mississippi screwed me the last time I used them, losing to Georgia in the game that knocked the Rebels out of the playoffs. But the second best part about sports betting for me is watching a game and yelling at my TV (the best part, of course, is Beating the Books), and one of my favorite teams to watch is Lane Kiffin and the Rebels, so I’m backing them in their Bowl. But NOT because I like watching them on TV. I have some handicapping stats in my favor.

The extra handicapping factor for this and any Bowl game is incentive, trying to figure out which teams really care about the game and will play hard, and which ones don’t care and will just phone it in with a slack effort.

So which Mississippi will show up – a team that comes in uninspired and flat, deflated because they missed the playoffs and feel they deserve to be in a more marquee game, or a team that’s angry and wants to make the point that they should have been included in the new, expanded playoff format?

The answer determines who you should bet on in this game.
Unfortunately, I don’t have the answer.
But I have an opinion.
And numbers.
And I have a player personnel issue to back up my play.
And best of all, I have one of my Bowl systems active on the game.

Key Player Personnel Issue

Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy threw 26 touchdown passes in 2024, a new school record. The Rebels weak spot is their passing defense so Murphy presents a huge problem for them in this game, right?
Nope.
Murphy announced he’s entering the transfer portal and will not play in the Gator Bowl.
See ya later, Benedict Arnold.
Good news for Rebel backers.

More good news – Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart (25 TDs and only six INTs) will be under center one last time. There was a chance he might skip the game as he gets ready for the NFL draft, but he hinted this week that he’s going to play in his final game as a Rebel.

How important is this?
How good is Dart?
He’s Mississippi’s all-time passing leader with 10,213 yards, surpassing a guy you’ve probably heard of, a guy who won the Super Bowl twice, a guy named Eli.

Murphy’s out, Dart’s in, and that’s all I need to know.
But I have more.

Key Bowl Stat
For my article dated December 11th, Bowl Betting:
Play #3
This is when a team has a better number in five of six categories, including the three top rated ones (top rated ones are the categories with the highest winning percentage.)
Record 23-15, 17 years of data.
That’s 60%, and anything over 58% is good enough for me.
Mississippi is one of three that fits Bowl Play #3 this year (along with J. Mad and K State.)

Coaching Records

Some people say Lane Kiffin can’t win the big ones (and he helped make their case losing to Georgia and getting KO’d from the playoffs), so let’s take a look at his bowl record.

2009: HC at Tenn, loses to V Tech
2012: HC at USC loses to G Tech
2017: HC at F Atl, 50-3 win
2020: HC at Miss, 26-20 win
2021: lost to Baylor
2022: lost to Texas Tech
2023: beat Penn State
Record 3-4

He’s 2-2 at Mississippi.

If you’re looking for a bright side, he’s won three of his last five.

On the other side lines we have Duke head coach Manny Diaz.
Bowl record 0-2.
And in this one, he lost his starting QB.

When to Buy Recommendation

The line opened at Miss -14 and right now I see lines ranging from -13′ to -15′. The WAN (Widely Available Number) seems to be -14′.

Our sponsor Bookmaker has it at Miss -15′, so they’ve taken some big action on Mississippi (either that or somebody over there really likes the Rebels in this one.)
At Bovada, you can get Mississippi at -14, -120.

T

his is a tough one for me to call, I could see the line going either way, up or down. Murphy being out is already factored in, but if any other players bolt for the transfer portal between now and Game Day on January 2nd, it’ll have an effect on the line, and there’s no way of telling which way that would be.
Bovada gets my business on this one.
I’m buying it now and hoping that nobody on Mississippi’s roster rabbits to the portal. Especially Dart.
This is a risky one, but I’d rather buy it early.

Mississippi -14, -120

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