Gasparilla Bowl Pick: Georgia Tech vs UCF – Expert Analysis & Best Bet

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-6 SU, ATS 7-4) vs UCF Knights (6-6 SU, ATS 4-7)

Date: 6:30 EST Friday, December 22nd

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: GT +4.5/UCF -4.5 (Did you know that you could be betting on games at -105 odds?)

Money Line: Ga Techj +172/C. Fla -207

Over/Under: 64

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and UCF Knights matchup in a non-conference showdown at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 64, while UCF is favored by -4.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Georgia Tech will be looking for revenge in this week’s game, as the most recent matchup between the teams ended in a 27-10 win for UCF. When looking at how the two offenses performed in this game, UCF ran for 284 yards while throwing for 49. As for Georgia Tech, they finished with 314 while running for 138.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Recent Form:

After losing their most recent game to Georgia, the Yellow Jackets have returned to a .500 record and are heading into this week’s matchup with a 6-6 record.

Going into the game, Georgia Tech was 24-point underdogs, and despite the straight-up loss, they did cover the spread. The team’s combined 54 points was not enough to surpass the over/under line of 59.5.

During the team’s loss versus Georgia, quarterback Haynes King didn’t throw a touchdown pass, but he did rush for two touchdowns. His overall performance included a completion percentage of 55.0% and 158 passing yards.

Jamal Haynes was the primary rusher for Georgia Tech vs. Georgia, with 81 rushing yards, carrying the ball 15 times. Unfortunately, he didn’t manage to score a rushing touchdown in the game. In the passing game, Eric Singleton Jr. finished with a team-high 96 receiving yards while averaging 24.0 yards per reception.

Defensively, Georgia Tech allowed a total of 321 yards to Georgia. This includes giving up 78 yards allowed on the ground and 243 passing yards. On defense, Georgia Tech comes into the game ranked 140th in passing yards per game. Opponents are throwing the ball an average of 27.9 times per contest vs. the Yellow Jackets. Overall, they are giving up 30.5 points per game, which is 130th in college football. Against the run, they are 171st in the NCAA in rushing yards allowed.

Away Injury Report

UCF Knights Recent Form:

With their recent win against Houston, UCF has restored their record to .500. The Knights are heading into this week’s game with a record of 6-6.

Despite winning straight-up, UCF did not cover the spread as pre-game 15.5 point favorites. The teams fell short of the over/under line of 61.5 points.

In the team’s most recent win, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee was not only responsible for one touchdown through the air but also added one touchdown on the ground. In terms of passing, he accumulated 253 yards while achieving a completion rate of 85.2%.

The top rusher for UCF against Houston was RJ Harvey. He gained 136 rushing yards and scored two times in 21 attempts. UCF’s most productive receiver in the game was Kobe Hudson, who finished with 98 on nine receptions.

Defensively, UCF allowed a total of 259 yards to Houston. This includes giving up 94 yards allowed on the ground and 165 passing yards. The UCF defense, going into this week’s game, holds 94th place for points allowed, allowing 25.4 points per game. Opponents have been gaining an average of 205.8 passing yards each game against them (59th in the country). On the ground, they’re yielding 188.3 rushing yards, ranking them 149th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When playing on the road, Georgia Tech has an ATS mark of 2-1 vs. the spread.
• UCF’s ATS record at home (last five) is 2-3.
• In the ten most recent times they were the underdog, UCF has put together an ATS record of 5-5.
• The previous ten times that Georgia Tech was favored, they were 2-8 against the spread.

Free Pick

Heading into this Gasparilla Bowl showdown, the over/under is sitting at 64 points. However, I’d recommend getting a bet down on the under. Both teams are going to look to establish the run in this game, and this should be a lower-scoring game than expected. Even though both defenses struggled to defend the run this season, with some extra time to prepare, they should have game plans prepared to stop the run. I like the under for this one.