Gamecocks at Vols Week 5 Pick & Predictions

South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2 SU, ATS 1-2) vs Tennessee Volunteers (3-1 SU, ATS 2-1)

Date: Saturday, September 30th

Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN

TV: SECN

Point Spread: USC +12.5/Ten -12.5 (BetUS – Get a 100% bonus up to $300 w/code PREDICTEM)

Money Line: Cocks +351/Vols -485

Over/Under: 63.5

The South Carolina Gamecocks and Tennessee Volunteers matchup in a SEC showdown at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN. The over/under for this matchup is currently 63.5 while Tennessee is favored by -12.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

South Carolina currently holds the bragging rights over Tennessee as in their most recent head to head matchup, they won 63-38. Both teams had no problem moving the ball in the passing game, with South Carolina throwing for 453 yards compared to Tennessee at 355.

South Carolina Gamecocks Recent Form:

South Carolina reached a .500 record after securing a win over Mississippi State in their most recent game. The Gamecocks are now focused on this week’s matchup, carrying a 2-2 record into it.

When looking at how their game played out from a betting perspective, their combined 67 points resulting in the over hitting. The over/under line going into the game was 46.5. South Carolina also covered the spread as 5.5-point favorites.

In the win to Mississippi State, quarterback Spencer Rattler concluded with a QB rating of 158.33 while connecting on 18 of 20 passes for 288 yards. Moreover, he contributed three touchdowns to the game.

Mario Anderson led the ground attack for South Carolina against Mississippi State. He accumulated 88 rushing yards and reached the endzone one time in 26 attempts. On his five receptions, Xavier Legette finished with two touchdowns and 189 yards.

Defensively, South Carolina allowed a total of 519 yards to Mississippi State. This includes giving up 32 yards allowed on the ground and 487 passing yards. The Gamecocks defense comes into the game with nine sacks, and ranked 1st in QB hurries. In terms of points allowed, they are giving up 26.5 points per game (72nd). When it comes to defending the pass, they are ranked 170th in the NCAA, allowing an average of 317 passing yards per game. Additionally, South Carolina’s run defense comes in allowing 117.5 rushing yards per contest.

Away Injury Report

Tennessee Volunteers Recent Form:

With a 45-14 win over UTSA, Tennessee’s record now stands at 3-1 as they head into this week’s matchup with South Carolina.

Tennessee was favored by 23.5 heading into the game, giving them oth a straight-up and ATS win. The under hit in the game, as the team’s combined for 59 with an over/under line of 59.5.

Against UTSA, Joe Milton III not only threw for two touchdowns but also ran for one touchdown. He concluded with 209 passing yards and a completion rate of 58.1%.

Dylan Sampson led the ground attack for Tennessee against UTSA. He accumulated 139 rushing yards and reached the endzone two times in 11 attempts. In terms of receiving, Ramel Keyton was the standout for the team, finding the endzone one time and securing one ball for 48 yards.

Tennessee’s defense gave up 319 yards of offense vs. UTSA. In the passing game, they allowed 231 while on the ground they gave up 88 yards. This season, the Volunteers’ defense has yielded an average of 111.2 rushing yards, earning them a rank of 149th. Opponents have an average of 190.8 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks attaining a passer rating of 84 when facing Tennessee. They are currently 68th in points allowed in NCAA rankings.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• South Carolina is 4-6 in their last ten games road games.
• Tennessee is 6-4 in their last ten home games.
• Tennessee’s ATS record in their five most recent games as underdog is 2-3.
• South Carolina is 6-4 in their last ten games as the favorite.

Line Movement:

Starting at -375 on the moneyline, Tennessee has since moved to -481, putting their implied win percentage at 83%. Meanwhile, South Carolina currently holds implied odds of 22% with a moneyline of +348. The Gamecocks’ moneyline began at +290. South Carolina opened as 10.5 point favorites at their home ground, and the oddsmakers have since adjusted the lines to +12.5 in their favor. There has been a movement in the over/under market since its opening at 63, with the current value at 63.5.

Free Pick

As 12.5 point favorites at home, I see there still being a lot of value on the Volunteers. Look for South Carolina to struggle against a defense that is only giving up 3.9 yards per play this season which is 3rd best in the country.