GameAbove Sports Bowl: Point Spread Pick for Pitt vs. Toledo

 Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5 SU, ATS 6-5)  vs Toledo Rockets (7-5 SU, ATS 4-6)

Date: 2:00 EST Thursday, December 26th

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Pitt -9.5/Tol +9.5

Money Line: Pit -347/U of T  +269

Over/Under: 51.5

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Pittsburgh and Toledo are both 7-5 on the season as they prepare to face off in the GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit. Kick-off is set for 2:00 ET on Thursday, December 26th, with ESPN handling the broadcast. Pittsburgh is the –9.5-point favorite and the moneyline odds are -347 for the Panthers and +269 for the Rockets. The over/under line is at 51.5 points for this matchup.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Pittsburgh Panthers and Toledo Rockets did not meet up last season, but over their last three head-to-head matchups, each team is 1-2. Against the spread, each team also went 1-2 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 36 points per contest.

Pittsburgh Panthers Recent Form:

At 7-5 this season, Pittsburgh heads into their Week 1 game against Toledo. They’ve gone 4-2 at home and 2-3 on the road. The Panthers have been favored in five games, going 4-1 in those matchups, while they are 2-4 as underdogs.

Pittsburgh has a 6-5 record against the spread, with a +5.1 average scoring margin. They are 4-2 ATS at home and 2-3 on the road, covering three times as favorites and three times as underdogs.

Their over/under record is 4-7, with an average line of 57.8 points. This week’s line is 51.5 points, with nine games having higher lines and two lower. On average, their games have totaled 58.6 points.

Heading into week 11, Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, placing them 33rd in the nation. In our offensive power rankings, they are 67th. They rank 13th in passing attempts, averaging 38.8 per game, and are 16th in completions, with 23.7 per game. They are 19th in passing yards, averaging 277.8 per game, and their third-down conversion rate is 37.8%, ranking 87th.

Eli Holstein leads the Panthers with 2,228 passing yards and a 61.9% completion rate. He has thrown 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, with a passer rating of 95. Desmond Reid leads the rushing attack with 797 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored four touchdowns. Konata Mumpfield has 813 receiving yards and five touchdowns on 52 catches.

Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed an average of 26.8 points per game this season, including 34 points in their recent loss to Boston College. In that game, they gave up 387 total yards, with 253 yards coming through the air and 134 on the ground.

Opponents have averaged 258.2 passing yards per game against Pittsburgh, completing 61.1% of their passes. On the ground, Pittsburgh’s defense has been more effective, ranking 35th nationally by allowing just 118.2 rushing yards per game.

Away Injury Report

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

Toledo enters Week 13 with a 7-5 record, going 3-2 at home and 3-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in eight of their 12 games, holding a 4-4 record as the favorite. As the underdog, they are 2-0 this season.

The Rockets have a +5.3 average scoring margin this season, but they are 4-6 against the spread. As the favorite, they are 2-6 ATS, while they are 2-0 ATS as the underdog.

Toledo’s over/under record stands at 6-4, with their games averaging 48 points. Their average over/under line is 50 points, and this week’s line is set at 51.5 points.

Toledo’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 34th in passing attempts and completions and averaging 246.2 yards per game. Tucker Gleason has thrown for 2,457 yards with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 97. Overall, Toledo is 55th in scoring, with 26.7 points per game, and we have them ranked 105th in our offensive power rankings.

Jerjuan Newton has been the standout receiver, with 949 yards and 11 touchdowns on 64 catches. On the ground, Toledo is averaging 121.6 rushing yards per game. Connor Walendzak leads the team with 457 rushing yards but has only one touchdown and is averaging 3 yards per carry. Toledo is converting 36.7% of their third-down attempts.

Toledo’s defense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 24th nationally by allowing just 21.3 points per game. In their recent matchup against Akron, they gave up 21 points, including 221 passing yards and two touchdowns. However, they limited Akron to 107 rushing yards on 34 attempts.

Opponents have averaged 213.8 passing yards per game against Toledo, completing 58.5% of their throws. The Rockets are also allowing 139.9 rushing yards per game on 37.8 attempts.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Pittsburgh Panthers have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 19 points per game in this stretch.
• Across their ten previous home games, Toledo has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4, averaging 23 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Toledo Rockets have a straight-up record of 2-3. Their record vs. the spread in these games was 4-1.
• Pittsburgh has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Free Pick

This is not a good matchup for Toledo in this GameAbove Sports Bowl matchup. I see the Rockets being overwhelmed on both sides of the ball right from the jump and Pittsburgh jumping out to a quick lead. I’m not worried about this line sitting at -9.5, as I would actually take Pittsburgh up to -11.5. Look for the Panthers to win outright and cover with room to spare.

Don’t forget to check out this week’s NFL picks!