Fresno State vs. Nevada Picks and Predictions | Oct 18/24

Fresno State Bulldogs (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 7

Date/Time: Friday, October 18, 2024 at 10:30PM EDT

Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada

TV: CBS Sports Network

The Fresno State Bulldogs travel to Reno for a Mountain West Conference battle with the Nevada Wolf Pack. Winners of 8 of the last 12 meetings between these teams, including the last three, Fresno look to poke their noses above .500 after losing their second straight with a 25-17 loss to Washington State on Saturday. Nevada, meanwhile, was able to get to 3-4 with a 42-37 win over Oregon State on Saturday, entering this home battle with a little head of steam. Who should we get behind on Friday in this Mountain West showdown from the Biggest Little City in the World?

Good Signs from Nevada

With a 28-26 win over Troy being their only success over the course of the first month of the season, there is some promise to be found for what the Wolf Pack have done since. After being shut out in an ugly loss against Minnesota, Nevada has covered the spread the last three games, losing only to San Jose State on a last-minute TD. We see that run game clicking into high gear, and between QB Brendon Lewis and RB Savion Red, they ran for five TDs and nearly 300 yards last week. They’re dealing with a Fresno team that isn’t one of the better teams they’ve had in recent seasons. We’ve seen them get roughed up on the ground already this season.

Despite some positive signs, however, the Wolf Pack are hardly infallible. It’s just that they are rounding into form a little better, and the same can’t be said about what’s happening on the opposite sideline with the Bulldogs. It’d be different if Fresno was in a get-well spot against a more hapless version of what we saw from Nevada-Reno in the first month of the season. But after getting their clocks cleaned by UNLV and falling apart late against Washington State last week, the Bulldogs are looking for answers. And coming into Reno to take on a team playing better might not be right up their alley.

Issues for Fresno State

They have an offense that can actually put up some points with Mikey Keene at 1576 yards and working well with targets Mac Dalena, Jalen Ross, and Raylen Sharpe. He can be errant, with 8 picks on the year, last week being the most costly when a late pick-six spoiled what was shaping up into a possible win against Washington State. A total of four picks by Keene in the last two games have been bad for this offense and their flow. While Nevada has some difference-makers like CB Michael Coats, being stout against the pass hasn’t really been a strong suit this season. In the last two games, both Oregon State and San Jose put up some pretty big passing stats against this defense. If Keene can connect with his prime targets and reduce mistakes, their offense might not be in bad shape this week.

What to Expect on Friday

The total (currently at 50.5) seems a little low with the matchup we have at hand. We have a Nevada team that can run the heck out of the ball going against a Fresno team that hasn’t been adept at stopping it. Meanwhile, Nevada’s issues against the pass would seem to suit Fresno’s offense well in this game. Both teams have seen their defenses perform capably in undemanding spots where they had things their way. We see the results quickly change when pitted against more capable offensive units. Not that this will necessarily devolve into a shootout, but both offenses should be able to see success in this spot. It’s understandable to favor the more-aerially-inclined team in this spot, and after seeing what San Jose State was able to do with this Nevada defense through the air, Fresno might be in line to make some good things happen.

At home and going against this Fresno run-stop, there might be some greater automaticity with Brendon Lewis, Savion Red, and this Nevada ground game. There are fewer things that can go wrong, at least when compared to how things can get when Fresno and Mikey Keene start seeing miscues upend their efforts on offense. Sure, things could get away from Nevada in the event that Fresno gets off to a fast start and has Nevada playing from behind. But if the Wolf Pack can get out there and establish a rhythm and get the other side of the ball to come through with a few big plays and some key stops, it sets up for a good spot for them to control things in stretches with their run-game.

Take the Points

Nevada gets a break with this at home, and while it’s not a super-long trip and it’s a familiar conference site for the Bulldogs, not all teams hit this field and shine. A leap of faith is required if one wants to back the Wolf Pack. The Bulldogs are equipped with an aerial offense that can take it to a Nevada “D” that is a bit challenged in that area. A fast start could have the Wolf Pack spinning their wheels a bit in this matchup. But I think the recent work of Nevada is promising, with Fresno having dipped a bit in recent weeks. Getting points at home, I’m willing to take a stab at the Wolf Pack on Friday. I’m going with Nevada.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Nevada Wolf Pack plus 3 points.