Fresno State vs Boise State Betting Picks & Predictions

Fresno State Bulldogs (1-3 SU, ATS 0-3-0) vs Boise State Broncos (3-2 SU, ATS
1-3-1)

Date: Saturday, October 8th

Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID

TV: FS1

Point Spread: FSU +6.5/BSU -6.5 (Be smart! Bet your games at -105 instead of -110 at BAS!)

Money Line: Fresno St. 196/Boise St. -243

Over/Under: 48.5

RECENT FORM

So far this season, the Bulldogs have posted a regular season record of 1-3 and will be
playing in their first Mountain West game. This season, the Bulldogs have been favored in 1 game
while posting an ATS mark of 0-3-0. Their average over-under betting line is 45.25 leading to an
over-under record of 1-2-0.

In their last matchup, the Bulldogs entered as 23.5 point underdogs to UConn. With the 19-14
loss, Fresno State added an ATS loss. For the game, Fresno State threw for 157 yards but did not
come up with a passing touchdown. Their overall completion percentage came in at 72.7%. On the
ground, the team ended with 1 rushing touchdown while averaging 1.2 yards per carry for a total
of 30 yards.

Jake Haener heads into the game as the team’s top quarterback, with a current passer rating of
104.23. So far, he has completed 75 passes for a total of 854 yards. Receiver Jalen Cropper heads
into the game, as the team’s leader in receiving yards, with a total of 284. The top option in
the run game for the team is Jordan Mims, who has carried the ball 66 times for a total of 348
yards.

The Broncos finished last season with an overall record of 3-2. In their 2 Mountain West
games, they went 2-0. This season, the Broncos have been favored in 4 games while posting an ATS
mark of 1-3-1. Their average over-under betting line is 47.1 leading to an over-under record of
2-3-0.

This week, the Broncos will look to pick up another win, as they are coming off a 35-13 win
over San Diego State. With the 22-point victory, Boise State also covered the spread. To finish
the game, the Broncos had a yards per completion figure of 9.6 and a total of 134 yards through
the air. However, they did not come up with a touchdown pass through the air. The team ended the
game with 5 rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 316 yards on the ground.

Quarterback Hank Bachmeier comes into the game having completed 51 of 94 passes for a passer
rating of 77.3. Wide receiver Billy Bowens, has come up with the most production for the team,
with a total of 147 receiving yards. In the run game, George Holani has accumulated 392 on 90
attempts to lead the team.

BETTING TRENDS

Against the spread, the Bulldogs have gone 3-7-0 over their last 10 games. Straight up, they
have a record of 6-4-0. The team averaged 28.1 points in these games while allowing 23.8. Their
over-under record was 4-6-0.

In their last 5 games away from home, the Bulldogs have a straight-up record of 3-2-0 while
going 3-2-0 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 23.6 points per game in these
contests.

Over the Broncos’ last 10 games, they have a strong record of 7-3-0 while also going 4-5-1
against the spread. They maintained a positive scoring differential in these games by averaging
26.7 per game and allowing 16.8. Their last 10 over-under record is 2-8-0.

In their last 5 home games, Boise State has averaged 28.4 points per game while allowing 11.4.
The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1-0 while going 2-3-0.

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Bulldogs will look to improve their offensive output, as
they are ranked just 100th in the NCAA in points scored and are facing a Boise State defense
giving up 19.0 points per game. However, their unit has done a good job getting off the field on
3rd downs, allowing opponents to convert at a rate of just 25.0%. This presents a problem for the
Bulldogs’ offense, as they are one of the worst performing team’s on 3rd down this season.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Fresno State offense that struggles to generate
big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off against a Boise State defense that
has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Broncos are just 73rd
in sacks per game.

So far, the Fresno State offense is averaging just 124.5 yards per game on the ground. This
production has come on an average of 30.0 rush attempts per game (122nd). This week, the Bulldogs
will be facing a Boise State defense that is ranked 49th in rush yards allowed per game.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Broncos will look to improve their offensive output, as
they are ranked just 99th in the NCAA in points scored. Although Boise State has struggled to
move the chains on 3rd down, they have a chance to take advantage against a Fresno State defense
that is allowing an average of 26.5 points per game and has had its problems getting off the
field on third down.

One aspect of the game that could benefit a Boise State offense that struggles to generate big
plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off a Fresno State defense that has yet to
generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Bulldogs are just 120th in sacks
per game.

So far, the Boise State offense is averaging 159.4 yards per game on the ground. This
production has come on an average of 35.2 rush attempts per game (80th). Look for Boise State to
try to attack their opponent’s rush defense, as the Bulldogs are just 157th in rush yards allowed
per game.

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