Fresno State at UNLV: Week 5 College Football Picks & Predictions

Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. UNLV Rebels (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 5

Date/Time: Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 3:30PM EDT

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: Fox Sports One

The Fresno State Bulldogs come to Allegiant Stadium on Saturday for a Mountain West Conference showdown with the UNLV Rebels. It’s a familiar pairing between two teams who have each won three straight games. Since losing their opener to Michigan, Fresno has won three in a row, including their conference opener last week against New Mexico, 38-21. Meanwhile, UNLV will be having their conference opener at home this week following an off-week. Two weeks ago, they notched their third straight to begin the season, winning for the second time outright as underdogs, beating 9-point favorites Kansas on the road. They had some time to prepare for this, and the Bulldogs might have a fight on their hands. Let’s break it down!

UNLV: What We Have to Go On

UNLV’s recent upgrade has been big, coming off a 9-5 season and out of the gates at 3-0 this year in Barry Odom’s second season as head coach. Sandwiching their 72-14 wipeout of Utah Tech are two excellent roadwins for this program to help carry a head of momentum into conference play. First was Houston, 27-7, where a strong run game and impactful defense carried the day. That same formula was on display in Kansas two Saturdays ago, along with a dose of clutch late-game play, when a late-fourth quarter TD got the Rebels over the hump. But then we got the news.

Due to an alleged unfulfilled financial arrangement, starting UNLV QB Matthew Sluka will no longer play for UNLV. This came just as UNLV got ranked in the top 25 in a major poll for the first time in their program’s history. The bad news is that they lose a good player who had been key in getting this team off to a fast start. One positive is they’re accustomed to turnover in this area, having lost QB Jayden Maiava to USC in the offseason. They also have former FCS star Hajj-Malik Williams and UNLV veteran Cameron Friel available in relief. Make no mistake, it’s not good. It’s untimely, too. But while Sluka was efficient aerially and did damage with his legs, they should be able to replace the 316-yard passing he had through three games. Other guys should be able to step up. Add to that a defense that is game-changing in the way of quarterback-pressure and turnovers and they’re a team that can still do damage moving forward. It’s easy to see why they were so low-rated odds-wise in their games, proving the spread wrong by a combined 35 points in their wins against Houston and Kansas. By now, we should have learned our lesson. And getting a week off to retool for their Mountain West opener at home against a Fresno State team coming off the road last week against New Mexico just seems to lend itself to a good spot. Whether the sudden exodus of their starting QB throws that into a different light remains to be seen.

What Fresno Needs to Do

In a way, Fresno could figure they just need to be who they are, entering this on a six-year run of wins over their annual conference dancing partner, UNLV. And with 134 points in their last three games, we see this is another tough Bulldogs squad that means business. After a rough start, second-year Bulldogs’ starter QB Mikey Keene has steadied the ship and looked pretty good last week on the road in a tough spot against the Lobos. Mac Dalena, Raylen Sharpe, and Jalen Ross could become one of the better three-piece receiver combos in the conference. But much like UNLV, it’s their defense that has made things look better for the whole team, namely a ball-hawk secondary and defense that has accounted for ten turnovers.

I think Fresno’s streak of wins over UNLV could be in peril, and the oddsmakers agree, even with the personnel trouble for the Rebels. They need to generate some offense outside of Keene connecting with his receivers. He has been errant at times this season, and that would play right into the UNLV defense’s hands. They’ve really struggled running the ball and can be one-dimensional, relying on the passing game or maybe an assist from the “D.” If we’ve seen any drawback to the UNLV defense this season, it would be against the run, and that’s not an area where Fresno has a lot of bankability with struggling backs working behind that offensive line. While Keene is capable, he can get a bit loose when really trying to air it out, something they might need to do in this spot. Not that you have abundant reason to think Fresno won’t figure something out in this matchup, but on the surface, there are facets of this matchup that suggest a difficult road spot this week for the Bulldogs.

Food for Thought

We’ve seen Fresno getting lit up through the air in the games where such an eventuality was even on the table. Even Sacramento State took it to this Bulldogs secondary in putting up 30 points. Michigan ran it well on them, and just because their last three opponents haven’t been emphasizing the run doesn’t mean the Bulldogs are good in that area. All components of this Fresno defense have question marks, and while their aerial leakiness might not be fully tested by who ends up behind center for UNLV, whoever that ends up being is still going to do some damage. And then what happens in the second half when a fading Fresno “D” is having big runs ripped off on them with the chains moving for UNLV?

Lay the Points on the Home Favorite

There are some red flags here—make no mistake. Generally, being on the wrong side of a hook laying points against a team that usually has your number is hazardous. I just think the landscape has shifted just enough to make this the time UNLV turns the tables. When you throw in how good of a spot this is with UNLV nice and dug in at home with Fresno scrambling around the southwest with a slew of issues on both sides of the ball that have maybe gone more unseen because of who they’ve been facing, I like the spot for Nevada-Las Vegas. A QB shift this close to game-time is disconcerting, but something tells me they can overcome it and reap the other benefits of what seems like a favorable spot. I’ll go with the Rebels in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the UNLV Rebels minus 2 points.