Football Pick: Oregon vs Washington State
Oregon Ducks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Washington State Cougars (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 29, 7:30PM EST
Where: Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA.
TV: FOX
By: Dave Wilson, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Oregon +3/WSU -3
Over/Under Total: 68
Game Overview: ESPN College Game Day sets up shop in Pullman this weekend! Why we believe the Cougars will win! For the first time in WSU Football history, they will host the nation’s most popular college pregame show—College Game Day. Both WSU and Oregon are seeking to break the 2nd place tie they share with each other in the Pac-12 North. Each team has put themselves in a good position to reach a solid bowl game or better—the Pac 12 has just a 1/20 chance to make it into the final four, but crazier things have happened. WSU is coming off a buy week while Oregon flies to town after beating the Washington Huskies last week in overtime. This could be a game to remember if the two squads bring their A games. We are on the Cougs!
Why WSU will Cover the Spread: The Cougars are 3-0 SU over the last three seasons versus the Ducks and 8-0 ATS through the past eight meetings with Oregon. WSU is also 6-0 ATS this season. Yes, it sounds like a broken record, but the WSU Air-Raid Attack is as designed—attack in a hurry and a fury. As one of the top passing offenses in the country, the Cougars look to continue their ways this week against the Ducks. WSU is averaging over 40 points per contest and Graduate transfer QB Gardener Minshew II is spraying the pigskin to as many as eight different targets which includes his two RBs out of the back field. Oregon will have their hands full on Saturday.
Why Oregon gets beat: The Ducks will be without starting guard Penei Sewell who is out for 6 weeks with an ankle sprain. They are also a banged up in the back field but aside from these bumps they still might give WSU a run for their money in Pullman. The Ducks always play tough versus the Cougs and have had their share of road wins in the Palouse. Defensively, Oregon has been fair, but they have given up a lot of big plays as well and this is what will be one of the differences in this contest. Both teams can be explosive and will come down to which defense can step up and stop the big plays. Will home field advantage propel the Cougs to a stellar D-showing?
The Keys to this Matchup: Pressure a lot! QB pressure will be a key in this game. The Ducks brought a ton of pressure on Washington’s Jake Locker last week with a plethora of blitz packages. WSU QB Garner Minshew II will likely see something similar from the Ducks but this is where the air-raid is so dangerous—teams’ blitz which opens even more targets and the system is designed to get the ball out quickly. Special teams play will be huge in this game too. It seems like these big games always have one or two special teams plays that turns the tide or cements the effort for everyone else on the teams—motivational vibe that goes a long way in these conference battles. Perhaps the biggest key to this game is the fact that WSU is on college game for the first time. I believe this will fire up each Coug player, coach, alumni, fans, and of course the student section—the Cougs are the early favorite and the line has already moved from -2 to -3 with a total at 66.5. I see this contest swinging in the Cougars favor at home.
Who to wager on? Cougars are fresh off a buy week while Oregon is banged up and exhausted and on the road. Minshew has an epic game and puts the Cougs on his back—WSU gets the nod at home. Take the Cougars and the points! Cougs win, WSU 45 and Oregon 38. Luck to ya.
Betting trends: The WSU Cougars are 8-0 ATS in its last eight games at home. The Ducks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against Washington State. The total has gone over in 11 of the last 15 matchups between these teams.
Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The Cougars cover the spread at home. Luck to ya.
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