Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs – Odds, Picks, and Analysis

Florida Gators vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

Where: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field (Starkville, MS)

When: Saturday, September 21st at 12:00 PM EST

Watch: ESPN

Betting Odds and Line Movement

Point Spread: Fla -6.0/MSU +6

Over/Under: 58.0

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Game Overview: Florida Gators at Mississippi State Bulldogs

There’s nothing quite like SEC football, and we kick off the noon slate with an exciting matchup between the Florida Gators and the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Both teams are eager to return to .500 on the season, and this game promises to be a hard-fought battle. Having not met since 2018, when Florida won 13-6, there’s plenty of anticipation surrounding this showdown in Starkville.

Florida Gators Betting Preview

Florida comes into this contest after starting the season 1-2, with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. Their only win came against Samford, a game in which they were heavily favored by 38.5 points. The Gators have been utilizing two quarterbacks, DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz, with Lagway showing more downfield potential and Mertz offering slightly better accuracy. However, the duo has combined for 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and they will need to focus on limiting turnovers in this game.

Injuries are also a concern for Florida, as top receiver Eugene Wilson will miss the game due to a lower-body injury. Chimere Dike and Arlis Boardingham will need to step up in his absence. The Gators’ running game, led by Montrell Johnson, has been lackluster, averaging just 55.3 rushing yards per game.

Defensively, Florida has struggled, allowing 27 points per game and ranking 198th in the nation in overall defense. They are vulnerable against both the run and the pass, giving up over 400 total yards per game. Sustained offensive drives will be crucial for the Gators to keep their defense off the field.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

Like Florida, Mississippi State has faced its own challenges this season. After an opening win against Eastern Kentucky, the Bulldogs have dropped two straight games, including a disappointing 41-17 home loss to Toledo. While the defense has struggled, quarterback Blake Shapen has been a bright spot, completing 70.1% of his passes with a 7:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Bulldogs’ passing game, led by receivers Kevin Coleman and Jordan Mosley, has been effective, averaging 278 passing yards per game. However, their running game has been non-existent, with no player reaching 100 rushing yards on the season. Defensively, Mississippi State has been unable to generate pressure, with just two sacks and one turnover in three games.

Free NCAAF Betting Pick

My Pick: Mississippi State +6

The old saying goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, you really have none,” and that seems to be the case for Florida. Their offense has accumulated decent passing stats, but much of that has come in games where they were trailing. With only one win in a three-game homestand, the Gators have shown their struggles. The loss of Eugene Wilson will further hinder their offense, leading to turnovers and missed opportunities.

I like Mississippi State at +6, and I also see value in the moneyline at +195. The Bulldogs have the better quarterback in Blake Shapen, and playing at home gives them a slight edge in this matchup.