Florida State Seminoles (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday September 30th, 2017. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: BB&T Field Winston-Salem, N.C.
TV: ABC
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: FSU -7.5/WF +7.5
Over/Under Total: TBA
The Florida State Seminoles fell out of the Top 25 for the first time since 2011 this week following Saturdays upset loss to North Carolina State. The Seminoles were double digit favorites going into the weekend over the Wolfpack but could not find any consistency behind freshman quarterback James Blackman. As a result, the Seminoles lost their 2nd straight game after a two week layoff that was a result of Hurricane Irma. This week the Seminoles will look to get their first victory of the year when they go into Winston-Salem for a battle with the undefeated Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
The fact that the Seminoles are 0-2 SU and the Demon Deacons are 4-0 SU could be perhaps the best indicator of future apocalypse. In all seriousness, the Demon Deacons started the season 4-0 last year but lost 6 of their final 8 games. In many ways, Wake Forest has benefited by having an easy opening schedule in each of the last two years. The Demon Deacons first 4 victories have come against the likes of Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah State, and most recently a 20-19 nail biter against Appalachian State. Perhaps this week, we will get the first true gauge of just how much potential this Wake Forest team has against their toughest challenge to date at home against the Seminoles.
Last week I told everyone to take North Carolina State +12 with extreme confidence against the Seminoles because I thought it was a complete nightmarish type of situation for Florida State. The Seminoles strength is defense and running the football. Last week, they were facing one of the best defensive fronts in the country to combat their running game and a dangerous NC State offense while breaking in a freshman quarterback nevertheless. The situation and the matchups simply did not favor the Seminoles. However, I believe Florida State will find themselves in a much better situation this week despite being on the road.
Despite the struggles, Florida State still has a really talented defense led by safety Derwin James who is the best in the nation at his position. Most importantly, the Seminoles entire defensive unit has speed and strength that is undeniable. I believe that defense matches up very well against a Demon Deacons offense that is centralized around quarterback John Wolford. Wolford has basically been everything for the Demon Deacons offense this year throwing 8 touchdowns without any interceptions and leading the team in rushing with 269 yards and 3 scores on the ground. Additionally all receiving production for Wake Forest has surrounded receiver Greg Dortch and tight end Sam Serigne who have caught 9 of 10 passing touchdowns this year.
I believe Florida States defense will be able to put focus towards these few players and get pressure on Wolford to be disruptive. I simply do not see Wake Forests ability to stretch the field or create space within the Florida State defense to be possible based on everything that I have seen. Therefore, I really like the Seminoles defense to shut this Wake Forest offense down. From there, the Seminoles have enough talent to get the job done barring any significant turnover woes. Despite the shaky start from freshman James Blackman last week, the youngster still showed some flashes of potential. Once he is able to read the defenses and trust his decision making, he will not have to rely on pure talent. Obviously that will take experience but Blackman has the arm and supporting cast to get the job done this week.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I am sorry to be pessimistic for the Demon Deacon fans but I just think this is a bad matchup for the home team. Last week, I advised everyone to fade Florida State with complete confidence. This week I say take the Seminoles -7.5 with complete confidence. – Not all sportsbooks are created equal! Many are fly by night, poorly run and your loot is actually at risk. End that problem today by signing up at one of the web’s oldest and most trusted sportsbooks! Online for over 15 years, your credit card will work and you’ll also receive a 50% bonus up to $250 FREE at Bovada Sportsbook!