Florida State at Notre Dame Bet – Can you ever lay this much?

Florida State Seminoles (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)

Date/Time: Saturday, November 9th, 7:30 PM

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

TV: NBC

Point Spread: FSU +25 / ND -25 (Grab a 100% bonus up to $500 with code PREDICTEM at Betnow!)

Over/Under Total: 42.5

In a battle of teams having near opposite seasons, the 7-1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish play host to the 1-8 Florida State Seminoles for a Saturday night showdown in South Bend. The ‘Noles hold a 6-5 historical advantage against the Fighting Irish, but it’s Notre Dame that has won the three games played since 2018 and is a considerable favorite to continue that trend this weekend.

CHOPPED

Four teams ranked in the top 20 to begin the season have dropped considerably out of their initial spots, with FSU amongst Utah, Oklahoma, and reigning champion Michigan coming off their asterisk title. While three of them still at least have a chance at bowl eligibility, the Seminoles’ slide has been more of a plummet as they have only a lone victory against last place in conference California to show for this year after having gone 14-1 just a year ago. They should at least get another win with a cupcake matchup at home against Charleston Southern up next, but their finale against rival Florida, who is likely to be playing for a bowl spot, lines up to be the exclamation point of awfulness on the 2024 campaign in Tallahassee.

GOING NOWHERE

The biggest issue for Florida State has been its offense, which ranks in the bottom three out of 134 teams nationally in scoring, rushing, and total yards per game. They have scored 16 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, and it really speaks volumes when the only offensive highlight is kicker Ryan Fitzgerald, who is 10 for 10 in both extra points and field goals, including a perfect 5-5 from 50 yards or longer.

Three quarterbacks have started for the Seminoles in 2024, with currently injured DJ Uiagalelei the only one of the trio to have a completion percentage higher than 46%. DJ has missed four straight games after breaking his hand earlier in the season against SMU, and though he was on the sideline no longer wearing a cast against the Tar Heels last Saturday, a return doesn’t appear necessarily imminent. Brock Glenn is listed first on the depth chart for this weekend, but how much playing time will be divided between him and Luke Kromenhoek remains to be seen. Considering the lack of effectiveness regardless of who is playing under center for the Florida State offense, it appears as though they will be choosing which butter knife to bring to a sword fight.

PASSING PROBLEMS

Considering the quarterback carousel of issues that the Seminoles offensive has had to deal with, it’s no wonder that only two wide receivers on the team have over 13 receptions on the year (Ja’Khi Douglas and Malik Brown). Douglas is the team leader in receptions, yards, and touchdowns through the air, and while Brown is just two catches behind him statistically, he did a majority of his damage early at the beginning of the season after posting 12 receptions in his first three games but has just 11 in his past six. Whoever lines up for the passing game will certainly have their work cut out for them on Saturday, going up against a Notre Dame pass defense that ranks 5th nationally and had an extra week off to gameplan around the loss of star cornerback Benjamin Morrison to injury for the season.

RUNNING ON EMPTY

A complete lack of a running game has certainly not helped the Florida State air attack, as defenses have been able to load up against the passing game and continuously apply pressure. The offensive line has been an issue all season, but there is plenty of blame to go around for a team that ranks 133rd in rushing yards per game and has scored just one touchdown on the ground in the last 23 quarters of football. Lawrance Toefill is the best the backfield has to offer, leading the team in rushing yards and touchdowns while also coming in at third in receptions with 19, but he has seemingly gone backward over the last month, totaling just 89 yards on 33 carries with zero touchdowns in four games since September.

PLAYOFF PATH

Thanks to losses this past weekend by four teams ahead of them in the rankings (Iowa State, Kansas State, Clemson, and Texas A&M), Notre Dame now has a clear path to the 12-team BCS Playoffs if they win out in their remaining games. That is certainly not a definite, though, especially with an upcoming schedule highlighted by the undefeated Army and a road trip to end the regular season to play USC in Pasadena, a location where the Irish haven’t always played their best football. Due to their ugly home loss to Northern Illinois in September, there is no room for any misstep by Notre Dame, which is a good sign for their spread backers on Saturday as they have even more of a reason to try to win big while the Seminoles appear to have a paper mache mental toughness with some on the team acting like they wrote off their season weeks ago.

LEONARD PART TWO

One major reason for the Notre Dame 2024 season resurgence has been the noticeably improved play of quarterback Riley Leonard. The Fighting Irish signal-caller has thrown eight touchdowns compared to one interception since their loss to UNI while also posting a rushing touchdown in seven straight games. The “spreading the wealth” strategy has definitely increased their passing output, with at least nine different players catching a pass in each of the last three games, a time span in which Leonard has also averaged over 200 yards passing per game after not having cleared that mark in their eight previous games. Notre Dame can ill afford to take any team lightly, especially one with the talent of a team like Florida State, but Leonard shouldn’t find much resistance this weekend against a Seminole defense that has generated only three turnovers all season, a mark that ranks dead last in all of college football. His feature wideouts Beaux Collins and Jaden Greathouse should reap the benefits as well, with the latter especially trying to break out of a slump that has seen him post just five receptions over his past three games.

GOING STREAKING

Riley Leonard is far from the only player finding running success on the Fighting Irish, with running back Jeremiyah Love having rushed for a touchdown in every game this season while averaging 6.4 yards per carry and leading the team in overall scores with ten. The do-everything-back is also tied for third on the team with 19 receptions and provides a viable option for Leonard in the passing game out of the backfield. Love is the best offensive player on the team, but he isn’t alone amongst a talented Irish running back corps that included Jadarian Price, who continues to prove his value on a weekly basis, and the team is now 9-0 going back to last year when the backfield backup gets over four carries in a game.

THE FINAL DECISION

Florida State has struggled both on the road and as an underdog of late, going 12-20 straight up in their last 32 away games and 14-19-1 against the spread in their last 34 games getting points. What makes that record even worse is the fact that their last six covers as an underdog have been by a combined total of just 5.5 points.

The preseason line for this game was Notre Dame favored by 4.5 points, but that has since ballooned up to 25 points, with a large disparity in the teams’ performances so far this season. At this point, Florida State has only pride to play for, and based on how they have played over the past month, it’s easy to question how much they have left in the locker room. On the other hand, the Fighting Irish need to win this game and do so in a big way if they want to hold onto their BCS Playoff dreams. They are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread under head coach Marcus Freeman, and I believe that streak of success will continue on Saturday night with a resounding win and cover at home for Notre Dame against Florida State.

Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -25

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