Florida State at Duke: ACC Football Week 8 Best Bets

Florida State Seminoles (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 8
Date/Time: Friday, October 18, 2024 at 7PM EDT
Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, North Carolina
TV: ESPN2

The Florida State Seminoles battle the Duke Blue Devils in an ACC battle from Durham on Friday. Both teams had last week off, as they try to work on some things, with each team coming off a defeat. For Florida State, it was yet another blow they took, falling to 1-5 after a 29-13 loss to Clemson. It’s been quite a fall for the Mike Norvell-led team that went 13-0 in the regular season last year. For Duke, the loss on the 3rd to Georgia Tech, 24-14, was their first loss of the season. They look to get back on the right track against their longtime conference tormentor this week at home on Friday.

First Time for Everything

Whereas Duke can boast a longtime winning tradition in hoops against FSU, the direct opposite and worse applies to football. Since 1992, the Blue Devils have lost all 20 of their meetings to Florida State. With the Seminoles landing in this road-spot with a thud and Duke showing they have some quality this season, maybe we’re in line for the first-ever Duke win over the ‘Noles. This story just keeps getting worse and worse for Florida State. After opening with a loss to Georgia Tech, you could maybe hold out hope. That was quickly dashed after emphatic losses to Boston College and Memphis. Order was shortly restored in a tepid 14-9 win over Cal, but getting splashed by SMU and Clemson in their last two really paints a dire picture who had it all going their way last season.

With a lot of departing talent, it was widely expected that the Seminoles would come down to earth this season to some extent. But starting with not getting selected to the College Football Playoff last season, leading to a bowl loss and the start to this season, it’s clear that the Seminoles have reversed course. And somehow, it just seems worse to be in this state when you can remember success happening such a short time ago. You’d almost prefer a team that’s bad to have been bad and just continuing being that way. The morale is likely higher than it is with a team that has just seen it all go to pieces as Florida State has.

Is Duke for Real?

A loss to Georgia Tech in their last contest puts things in proper perspective for a Duke team that has done really well to start the season 5-0, but is still a ways from becoming a true power in the ACC. It’s not like they’re blowing teams away, as it is more of a resourceful road to victory that the Blue Devils have taken. Twice this season already, we’ve seen the Blue Devils snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, sending the Northwestern game to overtime and winning, before coming from well off the pace three weeks ago to nip North Carolina at the wire, overcoming a 20-0 Tar Heels lead. It’s nice to see some clutch play from this squad, but last week showed things can get a little lackluster when their offense meets some resistance.

Still, there’s a lot under the hood with the Duke offense, and from what we’ve seen from the Florida St., the defense hasn’t been very inspiring, either against the run or the pass. Blue Devils’ QB Maalik Murphy can air it out in spots, making good use of his top targets Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol, along with getting help from lead back Star Thomas. It still may be the Duke “D” that has more of a say in this game. They have been unleashing a deadly pass-rush in spots, while the defense as a whole has been very disruptive, getting turnovers and making game-changing plays. Since giving up 3 in week one to Elon, they’ve been pretty consistent, allowing between 17 and 24 points in their next five games. What I like about this Duke squad is how they’re good at a lot of different things, unlike some previous incarnations of this team, where if you take away one thing, they become pretty impotent.

Does FSU Have Anything Left?

With the injury to starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, redshirt freshman Brock Glenn takes over, and his first game was a mixed bag in the loss to Clemson. Then again, it’s not like his predecessor was lighting the world on fire, so maybe with a game under his belt and a two-week build-up to this, he can give this offense new life and start to get more out of a talented receiver crew, with guys like Malik Benson and Ja’Khi Douglas. But the run-game has been and will likely continue to be unfruitful, with Glenn more of a pocket-passer and the sources for optimism being thin in that area. On the other side of the ball, there’s a few guys still getting it done, mostly up front with talent like Patrick Payton. It’s just that whatever is left from last season are mere vestiges at this point.

Lay the Points

It’s not easy giving away 3.5 points on something that’s never happened before. But based on what has been seen on the field and results-wise, in addition to FSU’s low morale, it’s not an entirely unreasonable number for the Blue Devils to be laying at home. While this may not necessarily be a breeze, as Duke was put in check a few weeks ago by Georgia Tech, I see them getting some separation in the second half and getting the win and spread cover at home on Friday. I’ll take Duke in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Duke Blue Devils minus 3.5 points.

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