Florida Gators vs. Utah Utes Pick & Predictions 8/31/23

Florida Gators (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Utah Utes (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

College Football Week 1

Date and Time: Thursday, August 31, 2023 at 8PM EDT

Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: FLA +8.5/UTAH -8.5 (Bovada – Best live betting platform on the planet!) 

Over/Under Total: 47

The Florida Gators come to Salt Lake City for a week one showdown with the Utah Utes as both teams kick off their seasons in a tough non-conference battle at Rice-Eccles Stadium. This is a rematch from a week one game last season where the Gators were able to upset a 7th-ranked Utah team, 29-26, in Florida head coach Billy Napier’s debut. There weren’t a ton of other highlights for the Gators in what dissolved into a 6-7 season. Utah, meanwhile, was able to bounce back and win the Pac-12 Championship while registering their second consecutive 10-win season. The Utes have really come into some nice success the last four seasons under longtime head coach Kyle Whittingham, going 42-18, along with some big wins in a 26-6 conference record since 2019. They have sometimes labored in these one-off non-conference battles against the more competent teams they’ve faced. Florida, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back 6-7 seasons and hopes for better this season.

Setting the Table

Utah is hoping for another big year, as they have taken control of their division in the Pac-12. A lot is hinging on the health of senior quarterback Cameron Rising, who tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl last season against Penn State. It seems like Rising will play. He wants to play. But this decision will likely be kept close to the chest with Whittingham leading up to the game. They are returning a lot of talent, and if Rising is ready to go, the Utes should be in good standing, especially at home. A ton of their pertinent talent on offense is back, except for Tavion Thomas in the backfield, where they have a lot of depth. They might get a little more work, as Whittingham will likely dial back the running aspect of Rising’s game coming off the knee injury.

Florida has some work to do in replacing Anthony Richardson, who went fourth in the draft. In comes Graham Mertz, who started a lot of games for Wisconsin over the past three seasons. The junior is a big and experienced quarterback who never quite rose to the expectations some had for him. Some big-time receiving talent remains on the Gators, but the run game was where they had most of their success. Having a more-stationary target at quarterback changes the complexion a bit on this offense, but returning backs like Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne offer hope for Florida. We sometimes saw Utah struggling to deal with teams who could run the ball well last season, the Gators being among them.

Drawing the Battle Lines

Looking back to last season and, in particular, the game between Utah and Florida, a big part of it was Rising using his legs to keep Utah afloat. It would be very apparent in crucial third-down conversions, two-pointers, and in other situations where they just had to have that small handful of yards. While one would be right in considering Rising to be a favorite to play, how much will his compromised state affect this Utah defense? Will they be able to find the same answers in those short-yardage situations? And it’s not just the ACL, as we even began to notice Rising not getting it done running the ball after getting banged up at different times this season. It’s hard to imagine him being turned loose with abandon.

Alas, the QB issues are not just a one-way street. Florida is thankful to have an experienced QB coming into the fold, but potential Utah backers should also like the matchup of a sometimes-errant Mertz going against a stingy and playmaking Utah secondary. Mertz has thrown his fair share of picks in his last two seasons, and he’s coming into altitude in a tough place to play while learning a new system. And for a point of reference, Florida was still 6-7 with a near Heisman performance from Anthony Richardson last season, who ran for three TDs in this game, something Mertz will not do. He will likely enjoy working in this offense as opposed to what has been a pedestrian Wisconsin offense the last few seasons. But maybe they’ll be looking for Mertz just not to turn the ball over while making good use of their backs.

Other than Ricky Pearsall, who has some deep-threat potential, I’m not too sold on the depth of the Florida receiving crew. There are some decent recruits, but no one other than Pearsall has any real proven production for Mertz to lean on aerially. You take a passer who has been shown to be problematic, going against a good secondary with a young corps of receivers, and it’s hard to be too optimistic. Perhaps the same can be said for Utah, who does have some good returning receiver talent with guys like Jaylen Dixon and Brant Kuithe, but no one who is really too scary. We could see a lot of running in this one.

Lay the Number on the Home Team

I think there are a lot of moving pieces for Florida, especially on the offense, and the idea of it all clicking in this altitude and climate against this particular opponent just seems to be an uphill battle in waiting. With a new QB who hasn’t been impressive, a revamped O-line, and what might be a bit of a one-dimensional approach on offense, I think the Utah “D” can hit the ground running better than they did last season in this same matchup. Laying points with what might be a compromised Rising behind center isn’t the greatest feeling, but I think they can patch it together in other areas and make it work. I’ll take the Utes.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Utah Utes minus 8.5 points.

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