Florida Gators vs. Tulane Green Wave: Gasparilla Bowl Spread Pick

Tulane Green Wave (9-4 SU, ATS 8-4)  vs Florida Gators (7-5 SU, ATS 7-3)

Date: 3:30 EST Friday, December 20th

Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Tul +13.5/Fla -13.5

Money Line: TU +368/UF  -503

Over/Under: 50.5

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ESPN is covering the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl matchup between the Tulane Green Wave and Florida Gators, set for 3:30 ET on Friday, December 20th, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Even though Florida is the home team, the game is being played on a neutral site. The over/under line is at 50.5 points, and the Gators are -13.5 point favorites. Tulane comes in with a 9-4 record, while Florida is 7-5 on the season.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Tulane Green Wave and Florida Gators did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Tulane Green Wave have a record of 3-0. The Tulane Green Wave also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 51 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 0-3.

Tulane Green Wave Recent Form:

Tulane enters Week 14 with a 9-4 record, facing Florida on the road. They’ve gone 5-2 away and 3-2 at home this season. The Green Wave have been favored in 10 of their 13 games, holding an 8-2 record as the favorite.

Tulane’s ATS record stands at 8-4, with a +17.5 average scoring margin. They are 7-3 against the spread as the favorite and have covered in five of seven road games.

Their over/under record is 8-4, with an average line of 53.5 points. Tulane’s games have averaged 56.8 points, and this week’s line is set at 50.5 points.

Tulane’s offense has been strong this season, averaging 37.2 points per game, which ranks 8th nationally. They are also 2nd in third-down conversions, converting 52.2% of their attempts. Their rushing game is a key part of their offense, ranking 6th in rushing attempts and averaging 206.8 yards per game.

Makhi Hughes leads the rushing attack with 1,372 yards and 15 touchdowns. Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,723 yards and 22 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 113. Tulane is ranked 31st in our offensive power rankings heading into their game against Florida.

Despite ranking 24th nationally by allowing just 19.7 points per game this season, Tulane’s defense struggled in their recent 35-14 loss to Army, giving up five rushing touchdowns and 338 rushing yards. Army ran the ball 55 times, while Tulane allowed just 17 passing yards on two attempts.

Opponents have averaged 144.1 rushing yards per game against Tulane, with 31.3 rushing attempts per game, ranking 28th fewest in the country. Through the air, Tulane’s defense has allowed 167.9 passing yards per game, the 12th fewest nationally, with a passer rating of 70.1, ranking 14th best in the country.

Away Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Florida Gators Recent Form:

Florida enters Week 13 with a 7-5 record, going 4-2 at home and 2-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in just two games this season, winning both. As underdogs, they are 3-4, with a 3-2 record at home and 0-2 on the road. The Gators have a +3.6 average scoring margin this season.

Against the spread, Florida is 7-3 overall, going 4-2 at home and 3-1 on the road. They are 2-0 ATS as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs, with a 3-2 record at home and 1-1 on the road when getting points.

The Gators’ over/under record is 6-4, with their games averaging 52.2 points. They’ve had seven games with higher lines than this week’s 50.5 total, and their average over/under line is 52.4 points, just above their average margin of -0.1 points per game.

Heading into week 11, Florida’s offense ranks 50th in points per game, averaging 27.9, and they are 48th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,610 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 98. Overall, Florida ranks 77th in passing yards per game.

Jadan Baugh leads the Gators’ rushing attack with 603 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Florida is 73rd in the nation in rushing, averaging 160 yards per game. Elijhah Badger has 789 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 37 catches.

Florida’s defense played a key role in their 31-11 win over Florida State, allowing just 11 points. They held the Seminoles to 239 total yards, including 99 rushing yards on 44 attempts and 140 passing yards, with no passing touchdowns allowed.

On the season, Florida’s defense ranks 44th nationally, giving up 24.3 points per game. They’ve allowed 156.7 rushing yards per game and 236 passing yards, which ranks 121st in the country.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• Across their last five road contests, Tulane has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 4-1, while averaging 39 points per game.
• Across their last five home contests, Florida has a 4-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 2-3, while averaging 26 points per game.
• Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Tulane Green Wave have a straight-up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
• As the betting favorite, the Florida Gators have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 4-1.

Free Pick

I think the oddsmakers are putting way too much emphasis on this being a matchup between the name brand of the conferences (SEC vs American), as Florida is favored by -13.5. In reality, this is a great matchup, and these teams are pretty evenly matched. Taking Tulane to cover at +13.5 is one of my favorite bets of all the bowl week matchups. I like Tulane to cover as underdogs in this one.

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