Florida International vs. Liberty: College Football Week 7 Best Bets & Predictions

Florida International Panthers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Liberty Flames (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 7
Date/Time: Tuesday, October 8, 2024 at 7PM EDT
Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia
TV: CBS Sports Network

Conference USA takes center stage on Tuesday as the Florida International Panthers come into Virginia for an evening faceoff with the Liberty Flames. Each team should be rested, with the Panthers last playing on the 28th and the Flames last playing on the 21st of September. Each team also enters this spot with a win, with the Panthers beating Louisiana Tech, 17-10, while the Flames are coming off a 35-24 win over East Carolina. Who should we get behind in this Conference USA Special on Tuesday?

Getting a Lay of the Land

Under Jamey Chadwell, who took over for Hugh Freeze, Liberty is now 17-1. They were unbeaten last season until playing Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. They typically make easy work of their Conference USA foes, with last season being their first in the conference. And just like last season, they get Florida International in the first half of the season as a conference foe. Daunting for the Panthers this week is the memory of last season’s matchup when the Flames cruised to a 38-6 win without much resistance. After two straight 4-8 seasons, head coach Mike McIntrye looks for better this season, and doing better in this matchup would go a long way.

The issue for Florida International is that unlike last season, this one is on the road, which obviously doesn’t help. They’re rested and should be ready to go but will be facing a Flames team that will have been nice and dug in at home for over a month, even more rested and having faced no travel demands this season other than an early-September road-game. And on the field, Florida Atlantic will be looking at a lot of the same faces that torched them last season, and we’ll see if they have answers for QB Kaidon Salter, RB Quinton Cooley, WR Treon Sibley, in addition to all the others who had good games last season in this very matchup.

Before Getting Too Gung-Ho About Liberty

Despite Liberty’s overall success as a program and how they can dominate at this level, we see them a little slow out of the gates. That’s hard to justify with a 4-0 record, but they haven’t exactly been thrilling, with one lone cover on the season. And for those betting on Liberty in this spot, we see this is the kind of spot where they’ve struggled, being big favorites against non-threatening foes and not laying it on as thick as some would suspect. And in wins over Campbell, New Mexico State, and UTEP, they missed the cover by a combined 45 points. So, betting Liberty as a big favorite has yet to pay off this season.

Like Liberty, Florida International will have some familiar pieces from last season on the offensive side of the ball. FIU has been dangerous without really having the bottom-line results to warrant much concern. They put up 52 in a win over Central Michigan and 42 against Monmouth two games after that, albeit in losing fashion. But it shows that in a shootout, they might not be as hopeless as last season. We’ve seen QB Keyone Jenkins airing it out well in spots, with Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson getting open with regularity. These guys even getting in a little groove this week could make covering this big number a tall order for the Flames. We’ve also seen an FIU defense showing a bit of a flair for the big play. If they can get a pick-six or crank up that pass-rush that we’ve seen at times this season, that’s another hurdle in Liberty’s way for covering this large spread.

Tough Spot for FIU

Having over a week off since their last game heading into this mitigates some of the issues for the Panthers. But with a two-week break spent at home after already being there a few weeks, this could be where we’re due to see the kind of spurt Liberty went on last season to close out the year with a series of lopsided wins. After struggling (for them) in a few lesser spots this season, I’d imagine they’ve been working on cleaning up some things—finishing drives on offense while getting a little more out of the talent they have on the other side of the ball with a defense that has been a bit quiet on the big play front.

It’s just that whatever the Panthers do, the Flames can do better. The Panthers can air it out pretty well with Jenkins connecting with Rivers and Patterson, but the Liberty aerial attack has more weapons and surfaces every week. They can run the ball well, as the Panthers well know, with Cooley and running-mate Billy Lucas. There’s a ton of returned production on this offense from last season, and I’m not sure an FIU defense that gave up 45 to Monmouth and 38 to Florida Atlantic is really a bankable proposition on the road in this spot.

Take the Home Favorite

While one generally wants to avoid trying to time when a team will be snapping into form, this week seems like a good spot for that to happen with the slow-starting Flames. Watching them to open the season, one can sense another gear or two is still available once they tap into it. Coming off an extended break, I sense this is where the big push begins at home, as the Flames start to serve notice that they’re still the big dogs in this conference. I see Liberty pulling away in the second half for the win and cover at home. I’m taking Liberty in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Liberty Flames minus 17.5 points.