Fiesta Bowl Prediction: Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks Pick

The Liberty Flames take on the Oregon Ducks on New Year’s Day in the Fiesta Bowl from State Farm Stadium. This big bowl game features the unbeaten Flames, Conference USA champs and one of the small handful of FBS teams to get through the season without a loss. They catch a big-name foe in the Ducks, the Pac-12 bridesmaids this season, winner of 11 games, with only CFP participant Washington having beaten them this season. Will the Flames rise to the occasion of a New Year’s Day bowl game, or will they hit a wall in this heightened context against a high-quality Ducks squad?

Entering This Spot

Again, two FG losses to Washington is all that separates the Ducks from perfection this season. One of those was in their last game on December 1, when the favored Ducks again fell to the Huskies, landing in this spot. On one hand, they had good momentum heading into the final stage of the season, and losing to a team like Washington narrowly doesn’t make that all go away. You have to wonder if a team with thoughts of playing for all the marbles doesn’t land in this spot with a thud, now taking on Liberty. It’s not a throwaway bowl game by any stretch, with this still being a coveted landing spot for most teams. But teams like Oregon can’t be crazy about this being what their season amounted to.

With 13 straight wins, Liberty has been on the upswing all season. Both teams have been good ATS, going a combined 19-7, but Liberty didn’t cover in two of their last three. They still fairly easily laid to waste the Conference USA this season, their first year in the conference under first-year head coach Jamey Chadwell. They’re a newer addition to the FBS, only joining in 2018 and being an independent before this season. Just from where they’re coming from, it’s hard not to think this may mean a little more to them.

Levels

Motivation aside, there’s a big difference operating in Conference USA and taking on all the west coast heavyweights Oregon battled this season. If the Ducks had the same schedule as the Flames, they’d be unbeaten, too, right? While it’s not impossible to see a team overcome a massive deficit in talent with motivation, team mentality, and things like that, there are certain football realities that would seem due to be crashing down on the Flames in this spot. Beating a good New Mexico State team in the conference title game on December 1 is nice, make no mistake. It takes a good team to pin a two-TD win on a team like that. But this is really a different strata of football.

Issues Entering This Game

A potential Liberty backer would have hoped for more personnel issues for Oregon. There are players who are going to be missing. But with Bo Nix making a point to stick around for another game, it’s a red flag for Liberty. Loyalty figures into it, but I’d be looking for Nix to be looking to put out some good tape as he enters the NFL draft. Top back Bucky Irving will also be in the mix. Their best defensive player Brandon Dorius, will be in there, along with 1000-yard receivers Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson. And that O-line, which is beastly, will also be there flexing their powers against what should be an outmanned Liberty defensive front.

The one saving grace for Liberty might be their offense. Coach Chadwell is an offensive mind who uses some unique packages. He has some tools with which to work, with QB Kaidon Salter, who ran for 1064 yards and 12 TDs while throwing for 31 TDs. He works with another big producer on the ground in Quinton Cooley, who ran for 1322 yards and 16 TDs. It’s a part of their team that they’re hoping can do some damage in this spot. It’s just asking a lot for it to translate at this level.

One of the main issues is that Oregon’s defense has talent beyond anything Liberty has faced this season. A piece here and there might be gone, but second-stringers on Oregon would be key recruits on Liberty. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is a master at dialing in defensive game-planning. You get the feeling that entering the Big Ten next year and with some key guys sticking around for this bowl game, they’re looking to make an impression here instead of just showing up. It’s possible that Oregon is even better than where they ended up, with there being some quirk within the matchups that made it so they couldn’t quite topple Washington while they’d still be a threat to any team in the nation. Taking a Liberty team who never really beat anyone compelling this season and asking them to beat the best QB in the nation this year or even come close seems to be asking an awful lot.

Lay the Number

Liberty had a great season, and they can’t be dismissed, even in this spot. But this is where we might see the true disparity in a near CFP participant in Oregon and a Group of Five standouts in the Flames. If the Flames maybe had that standout power in the trenches where they found some diamonds in the rough, that’d be one thing. But they don’t. They’re going to be underpowered across both lines and it will prevent them from seeing their talent at skill positions resonate. I see a conclusive win for Oregon. I’ll take the Ducks.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks minus 15.5 points.