Expert Spread Pick for Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech

Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Date/Time: Friday, January 3, 2025 at 7:30 EST
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN

The Minnesota Golden Gophers battle the Virginia Tech Hokies in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on the 3rd in Charlotte. Neither team had what you could call a very good season, yet both are afforded the opportunity to make it look a little better with a win in this bowl spot. The Hokies petered-out some at season’s end, dropping three of their last four, but salvaging a bowl-spot with a 37-17 win over Virginia in their last game. Minnesota’s 24-7 win over Wisconsin, meanwhile, allowed them to finish 7-6. Let’s break this one down!

How Each Team Looked Late in the Season

It’s a bit of a unique spot for both teams. Long out of conference title consideration, these teams last played on the 29th and 30th of November, and this is taking place on January 3. Most teams that are 6-6 or 7-5 playing in bowl games have long since played by now. It’s a bit of a peculiarity to be playing this late, though it’s not the only similar bowl game in an era where there are so many. Still, to shut it down for five weeks and then have to go to Charlotte and start the train up again for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl presents some different challenges for both teams.

One-score losses to Rutgers and Penn State toward the end of the season notwithstanding, Minnesota looked better to close the campaign. Those were their only two setbacks in their last seven games, with a narrow loss to Michigan preceding that, along with a two-point loss to UNC to open the season. They weren’t really that far off, and losing to an eventual CFP team by a single point toward the end of the season illustrates that. And those fortunate enough to have been riding the Golden Gophers late know what a bonanza they’ve been betting-wise, failing to cover the spread just twice this season. For Virginia Tech, a little upswing in midseason faded late, with three straight losses, and it was disappointing that they blanked in that stretch of games, though the finale against Virginia allows them to come into this with some hope. Again, how big is the component of momentum after these teams cooled their heels all December?

Player Issues

With the portal and opt-out situation having eviscerated a lot of teams, Minnesota looks pretty good on that front. From all appearances, they should have QB Max Brosmer, along with lead-back Darius Taylor. They have a few injury issues that carry over from the end of the season, but otherwise remain mostly-intact and that’s a big edge in today’s era of bowl-football. Virginia Tech, however, isn’t so lucky. The word is starting QB Kyron Drones will not play. They’re not even certain Collin Schlee, the backup, will play. If they have to go with third-string William Watson, III., what’s this offense going to look like? Their top two receivers have injury issues and might not be available. Add in how a couple of starting offensive linemen are transferring, along with a few other starters on the other side of the ball and the picture begins to get dicey.

Food for Thought

One doesn’t want to overstate the case here in terms of how things on paper don’t look so wonderful perhaps for the Hokies. We see them finishing the season in a bit of ragged form. They look to be missing a lot of pieces heading into this game, guys who were starting ahead of other guys and who weren’t doing so wonderful themselves. Now is the next layer of guys. Pair that with an intact Minnesota team that finished the season well and was a covering machine for most of the season. But still, Minnesota had a pretty soft schedule, especially down the stretch, except for the Penn State game. And while they did well in that spot, some other games may have painted a more flattering image than reality suggests.

The urge on the part of some will be to overreact to the parts of this game that paint the Hokies’ chances in a bad light—the transfers, the way they finished the season, and how their opponent in this game looks better in all those areas. And we already see that in the point spread on this game. What would normally appear to be an even-ish encounter now finds the Golden Gophers laying better than a TD as of press time, a pretty fat number for a game with such a modest total. It makes me think that the absence of some Hokies’ QB talent could be getting factored in a bit heavy and maybe Watson, III. isn’t such a lost cause.

Take the Points

It’s a tough game to bet and not feel a bit torn either way you go. Virginia Tech missing so many pieces is concerning, as is Minnesota being a little more-intact and better on defense in a game where a few points could go a long way. I still think Minnesota benefitted a bit from a weak schedule and might not be as vital in this context as we saw them in some Big Ten settings this season. In a game that I think will be reasonably competitive, I’m taking Virginia Tech and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Virginia Tech Hokies plus 7.5 points.

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