Expert Pick: Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Florida Gators (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)

College Football Week 7

Date/Time: Saturday, October 14th, 2023, 3:30 PM (EST)

Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC

TV: SECN

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: Fla +2/USC -2 (Be sure to check out our best free picks here!)

Moneyline: FL +110/S. Car -130

Total: 51

Following an embarrassing loss to Kentucky, the Florida Gators bounced back with a confidence-building victory over Vanderbilt last week in a 38-14 blowout. The Gators’ offense was able to get the running game going behind RB Montrell Johnson Jr, who racked up 135 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. In total, the Gators’ offense had their way against Vanderbilt on the ground, rushing for 215 yards. The run-game has become the point of focus after dismal rushing performances in both earlier losses to Utah and Kentucky. This week the Gators will try to keep the momentum going with a tricky road trip to South Carolina.

The Gamecocks will enter this week’s homestand fresh off a bye week with perhaps some much-needed rest following a handful of notable injuries in recent weeks. Despite the 2-3 SU record, the Gamecocks are 2-0 inside the friendly confines of Williams-Brice Stadium this season and are somewhat surprising 2-point favorites over the visiting Gators. The reason that the Gamecocks are slight favorites may surround the fact South Carolina’s defense has been relatively solid against the run, and QB Spencer Rattler has performed well on the offensive side of the football despite win/loss results.

Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Analysis

If you look at the Florida Gators’ offense on paper, QB Graham Mertz has posted respectable numbers completing 80% of his passes for 1,474 yards with 9 touchdowns and 2 picks. Meanwhile, the Gators are averaging 187 yards per game on the ground. Looks great right? Well as always stats can be slightly misleading. Florida has looked great in the running game against inferior opponents but was held to less than 80 yards on the ground as a team in both of their losses to Utah and Kentucky. Meanwhile, Mertz high completion percentage is due to the fact that Florida rarely stretches the field vertically and consistently runs short passing results that will test the Gamecocks linebacker corps.

This offense schematically can be predictable at times and I wonder if South Carolina will be able to keep the ball in front of them. South Carolina’s biggest weakness on defense remains in the defensive secondary but they have been solid along the defensive front. If they can limit the big plays, I would not be surprised to see QB Spencer Rattler and this Gamecocks offense produce solid results against the Gators defense. WR Xavier Legette has turned into a big play machine for the Gamecocks and they will likely need a couple of big plays this Saturday in order to pull out the win, especially due to the lack of running threat from the offense.

Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Trends

• Florida is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games.
• Florida is 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
• Florida is 1-9 SU in the last 10 games on the road.
• Florida is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games against SEC opponents.
• South Carolina has hit the “over” in 6 of the last 8 games.
• South Carolina has hit the “over” in 6 of the last 7 games at home.
• South Carolina is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games against Florida.
• South Carolina is 4-2 SU in the last 6 games at home against Florida.

Florida Gators vs. South Carolina Gamecocks Betting Prediction

I think this betting line is pretty well placed. I was expecting Florida to be favored but was going to pick South Carolina in an upset. However, the Gamecocks are actually favored, and I think that is because South Carolina plays well at home. Consider this a low-confidence play but I like South Carolina to get the job done in a close battle.

Jay’s Pick: Take South Carolina -2