Expert Handicapper’s Take: Minnesota vs. Purdue Pick ATS

Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-4 SU, ATS 3-5) vs Purdue Boilermakers (2-7 SU, ATS 3-6)
Date: Saturday, November 11th
Location: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
TV: NBC
Point Spread: Minnesota +1/Purdue -1
Money Line: Minnesota -109/Purdue -112
Over/Under: 46.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers and Purdue Boilermakers matchup in a Big Ten showdown at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, IN. The over/under for this matchup is currently 46.5 while Purdue is favored by -1.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

Purdue will look to carry over the momentum from last year’s 20-10 win over Minnesota. In the win, the Purdue offense outgained Minnesota 359 to 304. In the passing game, Purdue finished with 199 yards and 160 on the ground.

Minnesota Golden Gophers Recent Form:

Minnesota’s overall record fell to 5-4 following their recent defeat to Illinois. The Golden Gophers came up short in the game, with a final score of 27-26.

The over hit in this game as the pre-game over/under matchup was 43.5. On the point spread, Minnesota was handed a straight-up and ATS loss as they were favored by 3.

Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis threw for three touchdowns in Minnesota’s loss over Illinois. Overall, he had a passer rating of 114.96 while completing 50.0% of his passes for 167 yards.

Jordan Nubin carried the ball 19 times vs. Illinois and led the team in rushing with 75 yards, but he couldn’t find the endzone on the ground during the game. In terms of receiving, Brevyn Spann-Ford was the standout for the team, finding the endzone one time and securing three balls for 58 yards.

The Golden Gophers’ defense finished the game by giving up 372 total yards to Illinois. The team’s run defense allowed 75 yards rushing compared to 297 in the passing game. The Golden Gophers defense will take the field with 21 sacks and are 1st QB hurries. When it comes to points allowed, they’re at 23.2 points per game (82nd). Against the pass, the team is 84th in the NCAA, allowing 223.9 passing yards per game. Additionally, Minnesota’s run defense has 113.8 rushing yards per contest.

Away Injury Report

Purdue Boilermakers Recent Form:

With an overall record of 2-7, Purdue is prepared for this game. Unfortunately, their most recent performance resulted in a loss to Michigan, with a score of 41-13.

The over hit in this game as the teams combined for 54 point and the over/under line was 52.5. Purdue did cover the spread even with a straight-up loss because they were 31.5-point underdogs.

In the loss against Michigan, quarterback Hudson Card wrapped up the game with a QB rating of 56.25 after completing 12 of 28 passes for 144 yards. He also added one touchdown to his performance.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. carried the ball 11 times against Michigan and led the team in rushing with 61 yards, but he couldn’t find the endzone on the ground during the game. Purdue’s most productive receiver in the game was Mershawn Rice, who finished with 43 on one reception.

Defensively, Purdue allowed a total of 447 yards to Michigan. This includes giving up 112 yards allowed on the ground and 335 passing yards. Purdue’s defense sits at 121st for points allowed, allowing 31.2 points per game. So far, teams have been averaging 238.9 passing yards per game against them (119th nationally). On the ground, they’re yielding 150 rushing yards, ranking them 94th in college football.

Home Injury Report

Betting Trends

• When playing on the road, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 2-3 vs. the spread.
• Purdue’s ATS record at home (last three) is 1-2.
• Purdue’s ATS record in their ten most recent games as the underdog is 3-7.
• Looking back on the last five times Minnesota was favored, their ATS record was 2-3.

Free Pick

Purdue’s resilience is set to be tested once again as they face Minnesota. While the Boilermakers have navigated a challenging schedule, injuries, particularly along the offensive line, have taken their toll. This weakened front could spell trouble against a Gophers defense that, despite not being notorious for pressuring quarterbacks, has recently ramped up its sack count—with five against Illinois and four versus Iowa in recent outings.

Hudson Card, Purdue’s quarterback, may face significant pressure in the pocket in the upcoming game, which could disrupt the Boilermakers’ offensive flow. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offense might receive a boost with the potential return of standout rookie running back Darius Taylor. His presence on the field could provide a pivotal edge.

Given these factors—the Boilermakers’ battered offensive line and the Gophers’ improved pass rush, coupled with the offensive reinforcement for Minnesota—taking Minnesota with the additional point seems like a prudent choice. Expect a closely contested game, but the Gophers are well-positioned to not just cover, but potentially secure an outright win. Take the Gophers +1