Expert College Football Total Picks of the Week

This Week’s College Football Total Bets

Each week during the college football season, we target the sharpest totals on the board—those over/unders where the numbers tell a different story than the public perception. We’re not just looking for a high or low score; we’re hunting for value where the market might be off. Our picks are available throughout the week, with any final updates or new plays posted by Friday.

Every total pick comes with a straightforward breakdown, highlighting the key factors driving the play. This isn’t about guessing—it’s about data-driven analysis that cuts through the noise. Trust the numbers, trust the process, and let the results speak for themselves. Lastly (and very beneficial), learn how to bet on over/under plays at -105 odds instead of the -110 your bookie is sapping you with! Be smart! Save money by learning about reduced juice college football betting!

Week 15

Ohio/Miami (OH) Under 44. These two teams met earlier this season, with Miami (OH) winning 30-20, but the score paints a misleading picture. Ohio’s two touchdowns came in the final six minutes, and Miami’s 30 points included a pair of quick-strike, one-play drives late in the third quarter.

Defensively, Ohio has been strong, holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games, with Ball State’s garbage-time TD padding the 21 they allowed. Miami (OH), on the other hand, has been even more consistent, giving up over 21 points just once in MAC play – in their conference opener at Toledo.

Both teams rely on defense to win games, and with the stakes high in the MAC Championship at Ford Field, expect a grind-it-out battle similar to the first meeting, but without the late scoring flurry. This sets up well for the under.

Week 14

Illinois/Northwestern Under 44 (Lost 38-28). Look, when I dig into the numbers on this one, Northwestern’s offensive struggles jump off the page. We’re talking about a team averaging a measly 15.5 PPG and couldn’t get much worse efficiency-wise at 4.1 yards per play. What really caught my eye is how Northwestern’s ground game has been non-existent – just 3.0 yards per carry, which ranks 129th. On the flip side, Illinois isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard (26.4 PPG), but they’re extremely careful with the ball, posting the third-best interception rate in the nation at 1.05%. The efficiency gap here is massive: Illinois creates 0.406 points per play while Northwestern manages just 0.254. When one team can’t move the chains (Northwestern’s 30.66% on third downs) and the other team doesn’t give away possessions, you’ve got a clear recipe for an Under.
Rich Crew’s Pick:Under 44 – Northwestern’s offensive ineptitude plus Illinois’s ball security spells Under all day.

Week 13

North Carolina/Boston College Under 52.5. Both teams rely heavily on the run, but weather conditions—forecasted with 20 mph winds and rain—could limit offensive efficiency and scoring opportunities. UNC’s defense has been improving, holding Virginia to 14 points, Florida State to 11, and Wake Forest to 24 (including a late garbage-time score). The setup leans toward a slower-paced, defensive battle dictated by the weather and UNC’s strong defensive trends.

Rich Crew’s Pick: Under 52.5 – Weather impacts and UNC’s rising defensive performance suggest a low-scoring affair.

Week 12

Tennessee/Georgia Under 47.5 (Lost 31-17). This matchup leans heavily toward a lower-scoring game driven by elite defenses and methodical offensive styles. Georgia allows just 18.4 points per game, ranking 17th in scoring defense, while Tennessee matches that mark and has held every opponent this season to fewer than 20 points.

Both teams also trend toward the Under, with Tennessee staying below the total in six of their last ten games and Georgia in 7 of 9. Offensively, Tennessee relies on a run-heavy attack (235.1 rushing yards per game, 9th nationally), which tends to dominate the clock and limit overall possessions.

With two stout defenses, a ground-heavy approach from Tennessee, and a consistent Under trend, this game sets up perfectly to stay below the total.

Week 11

San Jose St/Oregon St Under 56.5 (Won 24-13). Here’s the breakdown: Oregon State’s above-average pass defense (198.8 yards/game, 40th nationally) is boosted by key defenders returning, which may spell trouble for San Jose State’s hit-or-miss passing game. The Beavers love to grind the clock with their run-heavy offense, but without RB Jam Griffin, they’ve struggled to finish drives and have turned the ball over more. Expect Oregon State to slow the game down, while San Jose State faces tighter coverage and potential stalls. With both teams primed for fewer explosive plays, Under 56.5 is the sharp call.

Week 10 Picks

USC/Washington Under 55 (Won 26-21). Washington’s offense has struggled to produce against stronger competition, with over 30 points scored only in early-season games against Weber State and EMU. Since then, they’ve topped 20 just once, and it’s worth noting they returned only two starters on offense this year. Defensively, however, they’ve shown consistency, especially at home, allowing a combined 34 points over four games at Husky Stadium.
While USC’s defense isn’t known for lockdown performances, their games on the road against Michigan and Minnesota both hit the under, showing they can keep scores low in certain matchups. The setup here suggests a similar pattern, with both teams more likely to play conservatively, keeping the total under 55.

Week 9 Picks

Rice/UConn Under 46.5 (Won 17-10 ). Both teams have struggled offensively, with Rice putting up just 23.3 points per game (98th) and UConn not faring much better. UConn’s defense, allowing only 21.9 points per game, has kept games tight and should limit Rice’s scoring chances. Rice also favors a slower pace, leading to fewer possessions and extended drives that grind down the clock. Turnovers could be a factor as well, with both teams showing inconsistency, especially at quarterback. The late October setting in Connecticut might bring cooler, windy conditions, adding another layer that could keep scoring low. With conservative offenses, defensive edges, and weather possibly playing a role, expect a low-scoring battle.

Week 8 Picks

Over 44.5 -106 (Lost 21-7). Michigan’s offense is coming off a bye week with key offensive line starters returning, which should boost their production. The Wolverines have scored 27 or more points in four of six games, and with Illinois struggling against the run (allowing 170.8 rushing yards per game), Michigan should control the ground game. On the other side, Illinois has shown they can move the ball through the air, averaging 8.7 yards per pass. With both teams capable of putting up points, the Over looks like the right play here.

Week 7 Picks

Northwestern/Maryland Over 45.5 (Won 37-10). This total feels low, given the dynamics at play. Maryland’s offense has been putting up over 32 points per game, and they’ll face a Northwestern defense that might not be as solid as their stats suggest, having benefited from weaker opponents. On the flip side, Northwestern’s offense showed life against Indiana after the bye week, and they now face a Maryland defense that’s been struggling against the pass, allowing over 350 yards per game to Michigan State and Indiana. With Maryland’s consistent scoring and Northwestern potentially finding some rhythm, both teams should push this game over the number.

Record: 6-6 -0.46 Units

Week 12:ennessee/Georgia Under 47.5 (Lost 31-17)
Week 11:San Jose St/Oregon St Under 56.5 (Won 24-13)
Week 10: USC/Washington Under 55 (Won 26-21 )
Week 9: Rice/UConn Under 46  (Won 17-10)
Week 8: Michigan/Illinois Over 44.5 -106  (Lost 21-7)
Week 7: Northwestern/Maryland Over 45.5 (Won 37-10)
Week 6: Syracuse/UNLV Over 55 (Won 44-41)
Week 5: Maryland/Indiana Over 50.5 (Won 42-28)
Week 4: Northwestern/Washington Over 42.5 (Lost 24-5)
Week 3: Alabama/Wisconsin Under 49 (Lost 42-10)
Week 2: Georgia Southern/Nevada Over 59 (Lost)
Week 1: Uconn/Maryland Under 45 (Lost 50 -7)