Expert College Football Total Picks of the Week

This Week’s College Football Total Bets

Each week during the college football season, we target the sharpest totals on the board—those over/unders where the numbers tell a different story than the public perception. We’re not just looking for a high or low score; we’re hunting for value where the market might be off. Our picks are available throughout the week, with any final updates or new plays posted by Friday.

Every total pick comes with a straightforward breakdown, highlighting the key factors driving the play. This isn’t about guessing—it’s about data-driven analysis that cuts through the noise. Trust the numbers, trust the process, and let the results speak for themselves. Lastly (and very beneficial), learn how to bet on over/under plays at -105 odds instead of the -110 your bookie is sapping you with! Be smart! Save money by learning about reduced juice college football betting!

Week 3 Picks

Betting the Under 49 in the Alabama-Wisconsin Game

When looking at this Alabama-Wisconsin matchup, there are several key factors pointing to a lower-scoring contest. Both teams bring defensive strengths, and the way their offenses and game scripts are shaping up should have astute bettors looking at the Under 49.

Alabama’s Run Defense Concerns

One key angle here is Alabama’s vulnerability against the run. Last week against USF, the Tide gave up 206 rushing yards on 46 carries. This wasn’t just garbage-time yardage either—USF was in the game for much of the first half, outgaining Alabama 158 to 137 in total yards before halftime. That 158-yard total from USF made up more than 50% of their 309 total yards in the game, showing that Alabama’s run defense was getting pushed early, even by a less talented opponent.

This is critical when you consider how Wisconsin prefers to play “ground and pound.” While the Badgers haven’t exactly been steamrolling teams with their run game, their physical, run-heavy approach may find some success against an Alabama front that struggled to control the line against USF. If Wisconsin can control possession and eat clock with the run game, it severely limits the scoring opportunities for both teams—always a good sign when betting the Under.

Wisconsin’s Ability to Stay in the Game

While Wisconsin hasn’t shown a high-octane offense, they have an efficient and careful passer in Tyler Van Dyke. He’s already thrown 63 times this season without an interception, which means the Badgers can keep defenses honest with some play-action, especially if they get the run game going. Even though Van Dyke hasn’t lit up the scoreboard, his ability to protect the ball is crucial in a game where the Badgers will likely be trying to limit mistakes and shorten the game.

What this means for the Under is that Wisconsin should be able to control enough of the game with long, sustained drives, further reducing Alabama’s chances to blow this game open.

Wisconsin’s Defense is Underrated

Another key angle is Wisconsin’s defense, which has been quietly strong this season. They’ve allowed just 255 passing yards combined in two games and have given up no more than 14 points in either contest. While the level of competition they’ve faced isn’t quite up to Alabama’s level, the numbers are still telling—this is a defense that can limit explosive plays and force teams into longer drives.

Alabama’s offense, led by Jalen Milroe, has shown flashes, but it may not get as many big-play opportunities as it did in previous games. Wisconsin’s defense has been tough and disciplined, allowing 261 yards or fewer in both games this season, which suggests that they’ll be able to slow Alabama down, at least enough to keep this game under the total.

Game Script Points to the Under

Looking at the likely game script, Wisconsin’s ability to run the ball and play solid defense should help keep the total points in check. Alabama’s defense, while shaky at times, still has the talent to prevent Wisconsin from piling up points. On the other side, Wisconsin’s defense should be able to limit Alabama’s explosive plays, forcing longer drives and fewer scoring opportunities.

With both teams likely looking to establish the run and control the pace of play, we’re set up for a game that could be a grind-it-out affair. Fewer possessions, long drives, and a clock that keeps moving are all positives when betting the Under.

Final Thought

With Alabama’s run defense showing vulnerability and Wisconsin’s ability to play tough, physical football on both sides of the ball, the game seems set to trend toward a lower-scoring affair. Wisconsin’s defense, coupled with their ball-control offense, will likely keep Alabama from pulling away early, and Alabama’s defense should be able to limit Wisconsin’s scoring chances. Betting the Under 49 in this game feels like the right play, given how both teams have performed so far this season.

Record: 0-2
Week 1: Uconn/Maryland Under 45 (Lost 50 -7)

Week 2: Georgia Southern/Nevada Over 59